SPC MD 1806

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 1806 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS

Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 032123Z - 032330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce
sporadic strong gusts around 50-65 mph and hail up to 1.25 inch
diameter into this evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
under the influence of a southward developing convectively enhanced
vorticity max over eastern CO/western KS.  While moisture is
limited, steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Aided by the vorticity max and vertically veering wind
profiles, effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support
sporadic organized convection despite modest boundary-layer
moisture/instability. Modified 12z and forecast soundings indicated
a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud
thermodynamic profiles. This will aid in development of strong
downdrafts and sporadic severe thunderstorm gusts. Furthermore,
elongated hodographs amid favorable vertical shear and steep lapse
rates suggests any longer-lived and well-organized cells may produce
hail to near 1.25 inch diameter. Given the modest thermodynamic
environment, a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected, but
sporadic strong to locally severe storms are possible into the
evening.

..Leitman/Smith.. 08/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36870392 37110369 37250308 37360230 37500126 37240069
            36660055 35920073 34940143 33870217 33750325 34070398
            35160420 36390398 36870392 

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