Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted August 3 Administrators Posted August 3 SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today over parts of Minnesota and South Dakota, and from the Carolinas to southeast New York. Other strong to severe storms may affect the Texas Panhandle, southwest Florida, and central/northern Utah. ...20Z Update... ...Utah... Strong heating and monsoonal moisture will promote scattered to potentially numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, initially within the higher terrain. A very weak MCV was evident in visible satellite in south-central Utah which also may aid in storm development. Overall buoyancy will be weak, but enough storm coverage and subsequent cold pool development may promote organized outflow to push into the Utah/Salt Lake Valley and surrounding areas by early evening. A few strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. Elsewhere, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid with only minor changes based on observational trends and recent guidance. ..Wendt.. 08/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2024/ ...Eastern States... A large upper trough remains in place over the eastern states today, with a broad/deep zone of seasonably strong southwesterly flow from GA/Carolinas into New England. Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies in this corridor, where temperatures will climb into the 90s and dewpoints will be near 70F. This will yield a region of steep low-level lapse rates and ample CAPE for afternoon thunderstorm development. Winds aloft will be stronger than yesterday, and the proximity to the upper trough axis suggests greater coverage of storms. This should result in a more active convective day with several clusters of storms capable of damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. ...MN/SD... Fast northwest flow aloft across the northern Plains will maintain steep mid-level lapse rates and occasional minor perturbations in the flow through the forecast period across the Dakotas/MN. One such feature has helped to initiate scattered thunderstorms over northern MN this morning. This activity will likely increase in coverage by mid afternoon and build southwestward into the very moist/unstable air mass over central MN. Supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds will be the main threat, with eventual merger of outflows leading to bowing structures. It is unclear how far westward the more active thunderstorm area will extend, but have maintained the SLGT risk for eastern SD at this time. ...TX Panhandle... Satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough and embedded remnant MCV over western KS. This feature will drift southward this afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southwest KS/southeast CO. Storms will spread southward into the evening across the OK/TX Panhandles. 12z CAM solutions are a bit more bullish on congealing outflows later today and the potential for strong/damaging wind gusts across this region. ...FL... Tropical Depression Four is slowly organizing over western Cuba. As this system tracks northward to the west of the FL Peninsula, low-level wind fields will slowly intensify through the night. This would suggest the potential for a brief tornado or two with convection in the outer bands of the system. Read more View the full article Quote
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