Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted September 28 Administrators Share Posted September 28 SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern features mean ridging over the West and troughing in the East. The pattern is anchored by a large, nearly stacked cyclone -- resulting from the combination of an antecedent midlatitude low with the post-tropical remnants of Helene. The cyclone should remain centered over the lower Ohio Valley region, drifting/wobbling erratically eastward over northern KY through the period, while continuing to fill. The strongest associated mid/ upper-level winds should remain mostly behind a low-level frontal zone extending from the northern Gulf across northern FL to the coastal Carolinas. South of the boundary across parts of peninsular FL, sufficient low-level moisture remains -- amid weak to negligible MLCINH and a deep troposphere with modest but sufficient lapse rates for convection. This will support scattered thunderstorms today over FL, with isolated thunderstorm potential over coastal areas of GA/Carolinas near the boundary. Dry midlevel air and lack of greater flow/shear should keep severe potential too isolated and disorganized for an outlook. Elsewhere, just east of the mean ridge and amid northerly flow very peripheral to the cyclone, a patch of marginally favorable low/ middle-level moisture should combine with diurnal heating of higher terrain over parts of northern NM and southern CO. Scattered showers are expected this afternoon, with isolated to widely scattered convection extending above a mid/upper-level stable layer and into icing regions suitable for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible amid weak but sufficient low-level moisture and instability around parts of the eastern Great Lakes. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/28/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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