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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WYOMING...

...Northern Rockies/Plains...
The primary adjustment for this update is introducing a Critical
risk area to parts of central WY where morning guidance has come
into reasonably good agreement in a few hours of sustained 20-25 mph
winds with RH values near 15%. Additionally, the Elevated risk areas
across the northern Rockies and northern Plains have been combined
and expanded into eastern MT to account for two trends. First,
morning surface observations are drier/windier along the surface
trough that is in place across the High Plains than previously
anticipated by guidance. This trend suggests that elevated to
critical fire weather conditions may be more pervasive than depicted
by the previous outlook. Second, dry and windy conditions are likely
overnight tonight as a dry cold front pushes southeast across MT and
the western Dakotas. An influx of dry air will limit nocturnal RH
recovery with most 12z guidance suggesting that 15-25% RH and 20-30
mph winds will be common for a few hours in the post-frontal regime.

...Utah...
Very isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
central UT. The 12z SLC sounding sampled very dry boundary-layer
conditions, but cold temperatures aloft with adequate moisture for
weak convection. Additionally, recent visible imagery already shows
shallow cumulus developing atop the boundary layer. As such, a few
dry thunderstorms appear possible and may overlap with the dry fuels
that are in place across west-central UT. However, thunderstorm
development appears most probable across central UT where orographic
ascent will bolster the relatively weak ascent over the region.
Given the low probability for dry lightning over receptive fuels,
additional risk highlights were withheld.

..Moore.. 09/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected across
much of the Intermountain West into the northern Great Plains as a
progressive mid-level trough traverses the Canadian prairies. The
deepening surface cyclone and tightening surface pressure gradients
associated with this trough will result in widespread dry and windy
conditions over receptive fuels. 

A narrow Critical area has been maintained where the highest
confidence in 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values below 15%
are expected to overlap with ERC fuels exceeding the 95th annual
percentiles. Portions of central and eastern Wyoming may also
experience locally critical conditions, though confidence in the
magnitude and spatial extent of surface winds precludes Critical
highlights at this time.

Further west, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across
central and eastern Nevada into western Utah, as well as portions of
Columbia River Basin in Washington. Winds in the Columbia River
Basin could be as high as 20-25 MPH, but forecast guidance shows
significant spread in the forecast boundary-layer relative humidity
values (15-25%). Across the Great Basin, winds will generally remain
in the 15-20 MPH range with relative humidity values of 10-15%.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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