Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted September 29 Administrators Share Posted September 29 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Central and Northern Plains... Both the Elevated and Critical fire weather risk areas have been expanded to encompass more of the central and northern Plains based on trends in recent guidance. Nearly all solutions, including the typically moist NAM-based solutions, have trended towards a faster cold frontal progression through Monday evening with widespread 15-25% RH reductions and 20-30 mph winds in the post-frontal regime. The general consensus among deterministic and ensemble guidance is that much of central NE and south-central SD will see several hours of critical wind/RH conditions, and elevated conditions may extend as far east as the upper MS River Valley (though some uncertainty persist regarding how far east the cold front will reach by late afternoon). ERCs generally remain above the 80th percentile across the central/northern Plains and will support the fire weather concern. ...Northeast Utah into Wyoming... An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of northeast UT into southwest WY. Breezy westerly winds in the wake of the synoptic cold front should promote downslope warming/drying in the lee of the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. With the stronger gradient winds displaced to the east, 15-20 mph winds appear most likely, but a few locations may see winds up to 20-25 mph with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. ..Moore.. 09/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southeastward-moving cold front will bring elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to the central and northern Great Plains. Gusty winds of 20-25 MPH will coincide with post-frontal boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15% across much of South Dakota into Nebraska and northern Kansas. These conditions will overlap with ERC fuels that exceed the 98th annual percentile, and warm/dry conditions expected the preceding day. A Critical highlight area was introduced where the greatest confidence in persistent dry and windy conditions will occur, though additional adjustments and expansions may be needed as frontal timing and speed come into clearer focus. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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