Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted September 29, 2024 Administrators Posted September 29, 2024 SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southern VA and the Carolinas... A weakening, positive-tilt mid/upper trough will slowly move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians on Monday. Thermodynamic profiles across the region suggest convection should remain shallow due to relatively warm temperatures at mid/upper levels, especially along/south of the quasi-stationary front arcing from central/southern NC to southern WV. Overall thunderstorm coverage should be quite isolated. On the southeast flank of the trough, mid-level southwesterlies will remain enhanced from GA to southern NC. Adequate deep-layer shear with moderate straight-line hodograph elongation should be present near the southeast NC vicinity of the front. But poor mid-level lapse rates (around 4-5 C/km) will temper hail growth. ...FL Peninsula... Rich low-level moisture combined with ascent along the sea breeze should promote isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Weak shear will limit organized severe potential. ...Southwest... Limited mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms from the southern Rockies to the Mogollon Rim. Consensus of model soundings suggest buoyancy should be scant at most, with high-based, low-topped convection. Gusty, erratic surface winds are possible within dry microbursts. ..Grams.. 09/29/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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