Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted September 30 Administrators Share Posted September 30 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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