Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted September 30 Administrators Share Posted September 30 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Mid-morning observations depict a strong cold front pushing southeast across the central and northern Plains. Post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 35-45 mph) are being reported with RH values beginning to fall with the diurnal heating cycle. Confidence remains high in several hours of critical fire weather conditions for central NE into central SD. 12z guidance that has captured the progression of the front and wind/RH trends the best - namely the RAP and HRRR - suggest dry/breezy post-frontal conditions may extended as far east as the MN/WI border by late afternoon, necessitating a slight eastward expansion of the Elevated risk area. Elevated wind/RH criteria may be met as far south as southeast CO, southern KS, and northwest OK later tonight; however, fuel conditions are not as dry compared to locations further north, and the strongest winds will likely be offset from peak heating. These concerns precluded a southward expansion despite reasonably high confidence in somewhat dry/windy conditions. ..Moore.. 09/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Very strong winds are in place behind a cold front which is moving across Montana early this morning. Some sustained winds over 30 mph have been reported with gusts over 50 mph. As this front moves southeast, these breezy conditions are expected to continue in the post-frontal airmass. Poor overnight recoveries are occurring across the central Plains this morning with some relative humidity less than 25-30 percent, which is expected to continue through morning. In the immediate wake of the cold front late this morning and during the early afternoon, relative humidities are expected to be low before colder air arrives. Therefore, some critical fire weather concerns are expected across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota this afternoon. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas of northeast Utah and southwest Wyoming where an Elevated is in place to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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