Jump to content
  • Forum Image

SPC Oct 1, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook


Recommended Posts

  • Administrators
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, the main belt of westerlies is expected to
remain near the Canadian border through the period, extending across
more of the Great Lakes with time.  That will occur as a synoptic-
scale trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over
westernmost parts of Hudson Bay across northwestern ON to the upper
Mississippi Valley -- ejects northeastward over northern ON, and
James and Hudson Bays, through the period.  This stronger flow will
remain well poleward of thunder potential today near a weakening/
ejecting trough over the Tidewater region, south of a weak front
over FL, and under or south of a weakening synoptic ridge over parts
of CO/NM/AZ.  Vertical shear and lapse rates aloft will be too weak
in any of those areas to support organized severe potential. 
Locally strong gusts may accompany the high-based convection in AZ,
with a deep/well-mixed subcloud layer, but only modest (5-15 kt)
midlevel easterlies.  A cold front sweeping across the Great Lakes,
Ohio Valley, lower Mississippi Valley, and southern Plains, should
encounter a marginally moist/unstable airmass for isolated thunder,
within a band of convection over parts of the eastern Great Lakes.

..Edwards/Dean.. 10/01/2024

Read more

View the full article

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...