Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 1 Administrators Share Posted October 1 SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... The previous forecast remains on track with surface observations showing strengthening winds across central MT and parts of western ND as a surface low begins to deepen across southern SK. This trend will continue as the low deepens further across the southern Canadian Prairies this afternoon. Both the Elevated and Critical risk areas were expanded eastward with this update based on recent 12 UTC guidance, which suggests the axis of stronger 925-850 mb winds (and by extension the corridor with the strongest surface gusts) may be displaced slightly further east than previously anticipated and centered over the western to central Dakotas by peak heating. The 12 UTC GGW sounding sampled these stronger winds just above the nocturnal inversion; elevated to critical fire weather conditions should begin by around 18 UTC as this inversion is mixed out. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong area of high pressure will initially dominate the pattern across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS for the first half of the day today. However, by midday lee troughing will start to strengthen across Alberta. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains and result in gusty winds across Montana, the western Dakotas, and into the Nebraska Panhandle/northeast Colorado. The greatest confidence in 20+ mph sustained winds and low relative humidity, in the vicinity of dry fuels, is across eastern Montana and western North Dakota where the Critical delineation is present. Some strong winds are also possible across north-central Montana where relative humidity is expected to be in the low 20s. However, despite conditions that will likely meet Critical criteria, fuels are not that dry across this region and thus, an Elevated area is likely sufficient for the threat. An additional area of dry and breezy conditions is present across southern Wyoming, where winds of 15 to 20 mph are possible with single digit relative humidity. Finally, quite substantial dry and breezy conditions, meeting Critical criteria, are expected across southwest New Mexico and southeast Arizona. However, fuels in this region are not dry enough to support a significant fire threat. Therefore, no Elevated or Critical areas are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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