Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 1 Administrators Share Posted October 1 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN WYOMING... An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the mid-Missouri River Valley into the upper Mississippi River Valley. Latest forecast guidance has come into better agreement regarding wind speeds and RH reductions ahead of the approaching cold front. Moisture return within the dry return pattern will be minimal and should allow RH reductions well into the 20-25% range. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph should be common and will support elevated fire weather concerns. An additional Elevated risk area was considered along the SD/ND border into eastern ND within the post-frontal regime. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance shows somewhat more spread/less certainty regarding the timing of the front and the degree of post-frontal RH reductions. Trends will continue to be monitored and additional highlights may be needed. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An elongated mid-level jet will extend along the US/Canada border on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains with a weak surface low developing in the central Plains Wednesday night. Ahead of this front, some dry and breezy conditions are expected from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to the Upper Midwest. However, the majority of this region lacks dry fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is justified in this region. An Elevated area has been drawn similar to the prior Day3 40% outlook across southern Wyoming where fuels are critically dry. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, as mid-level flow strengthens and a deeply-mixed airmass permits some of this stronger flow to reach the surface. Single-digit relative humidity is also expected across this region on Wednesday afternoon. Given the upper-end critical conditions expected, a Critical area has been added within the broader Elevated, where these conditions are expected to overlap the driest fuels across southeast Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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