Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 2 Administrators Share Posted October 2 SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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