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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook


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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific
Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern
Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing
potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next
week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper
trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor
imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is
forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an
associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These
features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry
fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions.
Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across
much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next
week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat
system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due
to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient
winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire
concerns. 

...D3/Friday...
Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The
greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern
NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow
will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly
mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards
stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most
recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph
in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This
trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical
fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected,
warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of
the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the
Bitterroot Mountains. 

Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should
promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a
similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains,
southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the
Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave
deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is
expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal
passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry
return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind
signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry
fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather
concern. 

...D4/Saturday...
A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern
to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and
attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region.
Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be
fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest
winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather
potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the
driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in
critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler
post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast
refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will
likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon,
Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather
conditions.

..Moore.. 10/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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