Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 2 Administrators Share Posted October 2 SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin into the northern Rockies and central/northern Great Plains late this week into the weekend followed by decreasing potential for widespread fire weather concerns heading into next week. Confidence continues to increase in the arrival of an upper trough (currently noted over the northeastern Pacific in water-vapor imagery) on D3/Friday across the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to quickly progress east into the northern Plains with an associated surface cyclone and attendant dry cold front. These features will support strengthening winds over regions with very dry fuels with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. Unseasonably warm and dry conditions are forecast to continue across much of the southwest to central CONUS through the middle of next week as an upper ridge builds east in the wake of the Fri/Sat system. Widespread fuel drying is anticipated during this period due to the hot/dry conditions, but relatively benign surface gradient winds should limit the potential for widespread wind-driven fire concerns. ...D3/Friday... Widespread fire weather concerns are anticipated on Friday. The greatest fire weather threat is expected to emerge across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID where dry downslope flow will increase through the day with the arrival of strong westerly mid-level winds. Forecast guidance continues to trend towards stronger wind speeds with subsequent model runs, with the most recent GEFS showing 50-70% probability for sustained winds of 30 mph in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. This trend also suggests that the areal coverage of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be greater than previously expected, warranting not only higher risk probabilities, but an expansion of the 40% risk area into portions of southwest MT in the lee of the Bitterroot Mountains. Further east, increasing westerly flow across the WY Basin should promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions within a similar, but slightly weaker, downslope regime. Across the Plains, southerly winds are expected to strengthen across NE into the Dakotas as a surface low attendant to the approaching upper wave deepens in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. Moisture recovery is expected to be minimal in the wake of today's (Wednesday's) frontal passage across the northern Plains. RH reductions within the dry return flow regime remain somewhat uncertain, but a strong wind signal among a variety of guidance suites coupled with very dry fuels (ERCs above the 90th percentile) should promote a fire weather concern. ...D4/Saturday... A dry cold front is expected to push southeast across the northern to central Plains through the day on Saturday as the upper wave and attendant surface low progress quickly into the Great Lakes region. Sustained northwesterly winds behind the front are expected to be fairly strong, most likely between 20-30 mph, with the strongest winds expected across the Dakotas. Confidence in the fire weather potential is greatest across southern WY into western NE where the driest conditions will overlap with 20+ mph winds. Confidence in critical conditions decreases with northward extent where cooler post-frontal air may limit RH reductions. Further forecast refinements are expected, but in general this synoptic regime will likely resemble the recent frontal intrusion into the Plains on Mon, Sept 30, which resulted in widespread critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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