SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. 

The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the
Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may
develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was
expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include
southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative
humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however,
extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. 

Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into
alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the
southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from
dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds
(gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the
20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires
start.

..Marsh.. 10/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the
western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an
amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will
continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record
dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely
support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather
conditions.

...Southern Plains and Southwest...
As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft
will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains.
A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly
surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH
of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained
near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central
TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low
as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the
stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally,
stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less
receptive fuels should limit concerns.

Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to
locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the
moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will
not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near
30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given
very dry fuels and recent fire activity.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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