Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 28 Administrators Posted October 28 SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.