SPC Oct 28, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

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Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley on Thursday, and into the Northeast on Friday. At
the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into
the Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorm development will be likely near
and ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak
instability and limited large-scale ascent should keep any severe
threat marginal.

From Friday into Saturday, low-level moisture return is expected to
take place further west into the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are
forecast to develop on Friday over parts of eastern New Mexico and
west Texas, with an isolated severe threat possible. On Saturday,
moisture and instability is forecast to increase across the southern
and central Plains, which could result in an expansion of severe
threat coverage. However, the latest models suggest that instability
will be relatively weak in most areas, helping to marginalize the
severe threat.

...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...
On Sunday and Monday, an upper-level system is forecast to move from
near the southern California coast into northwestern Mexico. Ahead
of the system, an anticyclonic and subtle southwesterly mid-level
flow pattern is forecast in the south-central U.S, where a moist
airmass should be located. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop on both Sunday and Monday afternoons with this
airmass. The strongest instability is forecast to be near the
western edge of the moist airmass, suggesting the greatest severe
potential could be from west Texas extending north-northeastward
into the central Plains. Forecast instability should be relatively
weak, keeping any severe threat marginal.

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