SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

A progressive upper-level pattern is expected through the remainder
of the week. An upper-level trough will eject into the Plains late
this week and continue on into the Northeast. Farther west, another
upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast
and gradually shift eastward this weekend into next week. Fire
weather concerns will be focused on Wednesday. Thereafter, cool/wet
conditions across much of the CONUS are expected to mitigate
larger-scale fire weather concerns. Coincidentally, ensemble
forecasts show low probability of critical fire weather through
early next week.

...Southern High Plains...
Dry and windy conditions are expected as westerly downslope winds
increase behind a Pacific front on Wednesday. Strong mid-level winds
and a surface low in the southern Plains will drive around 20 mph
winds with near 15% RH. The duration of these conditions is the main
uncertainty that precludes an increase in critical probabilities.

Depending on the evolution of the upper-level pattern over the
weekend into early next week, some increase in dry/windy conditions
is possible. However, given expected precipitation in the region as
well as uncertainty in the overall pattern, confidence in critical
fire weather is low.

...Southern California...
Offshore winds are possible from late Tuesday into Wednesday. While
some locally elevated conditions could develop, potential for
critical fire weather appears low given the precipitation that may
accompany the upper-level trough. Models suggest another period of
offshore winds may develop early next week. However, the degree of
upper-level support differs quite markedly. Furthermore, additional
precipitation is possible as the large-scale trough moves over the
region during the weekend. Trends will be monitored, but critical
fire weather potential also appears low early next week as well.

..Wendt.. 10/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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