Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 29 Administrators Posted October 29 SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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