Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 29 Administrators Posted October 29 SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may begin late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley area south-southwestward across the Plains. Local/limited risk for hail/wind warrants continuation of Level 1/MRGL risk for the very end of the period. ...Plains... Seasonally strong upper trough, currently located just inland of the Pacific Coast, is forecast to shift across the Great Basin/lower CO River Valley this morning as strongest 500mb flow rotates across AZ into southern CO. This feature should advance into the Four Corners region by 30/12z with a corridor of strong high-level southwesterly winds expected to extend across NM into the upper Great Lakes. This flow regime warrants a strengthening lee trough, along with a plains-focused LLJ, through the end of the period. In response to the approaching upper system, lee trough should sharpen and get dislodged into southeastern NE-central KS-southern High Plains by sunrise Tuesday. Prior to large-scale forcing/approaching cold front, forecast soundings appear too capped/stable to warrant any appreciable risk for robust convection. However, sustained southerly low-level flow should result in a gradual increase in boundary-layer moisture during the latter half of the period, as 60F dew points could approach the KS border by 30/12z. If dew points are able to rise to near 60F then surface parcels will be negligibly inhibited, and SBCAPE would likely be adequate for robust updrafts, especially as dynamic support is spreading across this boundary by sunrise. Will maintain severe probabilities for very late in the period to account for some risk of robust convection developing along the cold front/dry line, primarily after 09z. Given the strength of the wind field, organized thunderstorms are possible, and this activity could generate wind/hail. Even so, greater risk appears to be later in the day2 period. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/29/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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