SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on
the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally
elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration
should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See
the previous discussion for additional details.

..Wendt.. 10/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/

...Synopsis...
Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains. A  lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage
strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts
of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface
winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest.
Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely.

...High Plains...
As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will
continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The
strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift
eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm
sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20%
will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical
fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical
meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across
parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength
of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions
may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few
hours.

Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts
of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft
will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While
fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally
elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front
passes.

...Midwest...
Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the
Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models
show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by
this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong
with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal,
low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty
remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH
values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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