Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 2 Administrators Posted November 2 SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more View the full article Quote
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