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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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NWS Atlanta

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Light snow showers are possible in parts of far north Georgia on
Sunday morning as cold air is ushered in behind the system. Little
to no accumulation is expected. Even a few flurries could be seen
as far south as the Atlanta metro area, but should not have an
impact. Conditions will be windy Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph
out of the northwest, making it feel even colder.

Monday morning could have wind chill values in the single digits
for the northern mountains, which could warrant an advisory in
future updates over the weekend.
 

 

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34 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Light snow showers are possible in parts of far north Georgia on
Sunday morning as cold air is ushered in behind the system. Little
to no accumulation is expected. Even a few flurries could be seen
as far south as the Atlanta metro area, but should not have an
impact. Conditions will be windy Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph
out of the northwest, making it feel even colder.

Monday morning could have wind chill values in the single digits
for the northern mountains, which could warrant an advisory in
future updates over the weekend.

I'm kinda wondering/hoping at the possibility of this over performing a little if moisture lingers bit more than anticipated as the cold rushes in. Not that I'm looking for anything significant, but such things have happened before and it would be neat to see a dusting come tomorrow morning.

As an aside, it was really cool seeing our dogs play in snow for the first time the first year we were up here. I've have kind of the same opportunity coming up in the next couple of weeks if we get anything. This past summer we rescued raccoon kits at work and reared them with the intent of using them as ambassador animals for our education programming. One's a little cranky but his larger brother is an absolute sweetie and enjoys working with the staff. They've never seen snow before and it will be a blast to see how they react to snow if it happens. :classic_biggrin:

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2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Coming into Georgia colder and faster.

Sorry, been running errands (propane, and washer fluid as well as general weekend stuff) and trying to catch up. Is this in reference to something next week/week after or are we talking about the one that is moving into the state tonite?

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4 minutes ago, Jay said:

Sorry, been running errands (propane, and washer fluid as well as general weekend stuff) and trying to catch up. Is this in reference to something next week/week after or are we talking about the one that is moving into the state tonite?

I should have been clearer. On the Euro that's now coming in, the cold air is initially slower by a few hours in getting to the north GA area. After that the air is colder and pushes further into GA. Low in the teens Saturday AM. No precip on the op run.

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8 minutes ago, Jay said:

Sorry, been running errands (propane, and washer fluid as well as general weekend stuff) and trying to catch up. Is this in reference to something next week/week after or are we talking about the one that is moving into the state tonite?

I have lost track myself, but I believe all the concern is for near the end of the month.  There is plenty of time to prepare, if preparation is eventually needed.  Sounds like dangerous, bitter cold is the main issue, rather than snow.

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4 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I have lost track myself, but I believe all the concern is for near the end of the month.  There is plenty of time to prepare, if preparation is eventually needed.  Sounds like dangerous, bitter cold is the main issue, rather than snow.

No worries on this end. I tend to do things gradually and the stuff we tend to stock up on at the house are your typical consumables we need for a household of 6 (w/3young kids). Post Christmas = big need for batteries for the toys. 
 

3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Not until the 27-28th does it show snow

NOT A FORECAST

ecmwf_tsnow_atl_36-19.png

Bummer.... but I'm guessing things will continue to flop around and we may yet have a surprise between now and the 28th. BTW, Steve, thanks for the heads up about the incoming cold in general over the next several weeks. Spent the better part of the morning the other day installing a tamper proof heat pad in the coon's den box at work. It was very nice not to have to scramble to get things done.

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So Steve -- just as a recap - to be sure I'm getting everything:

The computer models/weather apps/etc. are all wonky right now, which means two things -- we can't trust them and it could indicate that there is some major action ahead (but we aren't sure what.). Is that correct?

Also, when discussing the big concern in the 10 to 14 days out, the worry is over dangerous (possibly historic) cold.  Yes?

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

So Steve -- just as a recap - to be sure I'm getting everything:

The computer models/weather apps/etc. are all wonky right now, which means two things -- we can't trust them and it could indicate that there is some major action ahead (but we aren't sure what.). Is that correct?

Also, when discussing the big concern in the 10 to 14 days out, the worry is over dangerous (possibly historic) cold.  Yes?

 

 

 

The models are absolutely all over the place right now, especially past just a few days. It just means the operationals can’t be trusted for the location of any given piece of energy. And the locations of these pieces of energy will determine whether we get snow or not. One thing is for certain we are heading into a pattern that will be below average in temperature for a couple weeks or so at minimum. For that reason alone there is a greater chance than normal at wintry weather, but for now nothing jumps out as a legitimate threat. The ensembles suggest next weekend is a good window for us, but we have to get closer to that time to really know. Snow is never a guarantee in the south, even if the pattern is good. We’re simply gonna have to wait it out and hope we can time something up. 

 

As as far as dangerous historic cold goes, there’s not really a lot of support for cold like we saw on the afternoon runs yesterday. Things will likely trend colder as we get closer but that was an extreme outlier from all the data we have right now. Still a long lasting period of night time temperatures getting possibly into the teens is no small matter in the southeast, even if not as noteworthy as what those models were showing.

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1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

The models are absolutely all over the place right now, especially past just a few days. It just means the operationals can’t be trusted for the location of any given piece of energy. And the locations of these pieces of energy will determine whether we get snow or not. One thing is for certain we are heading into a pattern that will be below average in temperature for a couple weeks or so at minimum. For that reason alone there is a greater chance than normal at wintry weather, but for now nothing jumps out as a legitimate threat. The ensembles suggest next weekend is a good window for us, but we have to get closer to that time to really know. Snow is never a guarantee in the south, even if the pattern is good. We’re simply gonna have to wait it out and hope we can time something up. 

 

As as far as dangerous historic cold goes, there’s not really a lot of support for cold like we saw on the afternoon runs yesterday. Things will likely trend colder as we get closer but that was an extreme outlier from all the data we have right now. Still a long lasting period of night time temperatures getting possibly into the teens is no small matter in the southeast, even if not as noteworthy as what those models were showing.

OK, thanks!  This is what I thought, for the most part.  Good to know the super duper cold isn't a likelihood.  (Maybe super, but not necessarily super duper.  These are actual scientific weather terms! 😜)

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And Chuck is correct. The pattern is still on the way, but specifics are very tough to see very many days in advance. It's not easy right now. When I talk about the models being all over the place, for the most part I'm talking about the operational models, the regular GFS/GFSv3/Euro/Canadian. The ensembles aren't exactly stable, but they at least agree in principal as to the pattern. I really caution against looking very many days ahead, and I know everyone wants to do that when a model run comes out. 

 

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Let me show you what I'm talking about with the models. Here's a look at surface pressures for the GFS and Euro. The GFS runs are 6 hours apart and the two Euro runs are 12 hours apart. Look at how different the solutions are. How does anyone make any sense out of that chaos? 

GFS 12Z

gfs_mslp_plev_noram_41-19.thumb.png.60368a3b9bc24b9ba637b170bb481e2b.png

GFS 18Z

gfs_mslp_plev_noram_40-19.thumb.png.3aa6b96eb01bdb7e4a9d323b0fb3b516.png

 

Euro 00Z

ecmwf_mslp_noram_41-19.thumb.png.fe50fd565859010e259dfa9a0de82624.png

Euro 12Z

ecmwf_mslp_noram_39-19.thumb.png.595ca13897ad478c54b331b380331caa.png

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