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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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2 hours ago, Shannon said:

Looking ahead in fantasy land the models are extremely cold. Hopefully we don’t find ourselves in suppression city. 

Biggest reason I was hoping to cash in on that 20th storm, but seems highly unlikely at this point. Getting the storms on the leading edge or back edge of a pattern flip is much easier. A lot of times when the hammer drops the way some models are showing, the east turns bone dry until it starts to relax a bit. But still, potentially weeks of cold coming and all it takes is one storm to make or break, so odds are still higher than they would be otherwise.

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13 minutes ago, Athens said:

FV3 has been brutally cold. I hope it's just being overdramatic as I got a few tender plants I rather not lose. 

fv3p_T2m_eus_61.png

fv3p_T2m_eus_48-1.png

It is probably a little over done, but I would expect cold similar to the large outbreaks we had several times earlier this decade. Widespread teens and single digits across N GA on the coldest nights is definitely likely. 

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Tonights FV3 is a good example of what I was talking about earlier. I think the chances of us scoring a winter storm directly underneath the coldest air is next to none with the magnitude of these arctic outbreaks. However even after the pattern flips, there’s going to be some waxing and waning of the coldest air. So in those breaks where one cold air mass is moving out and the other is spilling in behind to replace it, those will be our key chances in my opinion.

The FV3 shows that here. In the first image the trough is broad and deep over the eastern US and we are in brutally cold arctic air. But notice all the moisture is way down in the gulf.

37204807-A7CF-4551-B2BB-C354B5C6C196.thumb.png.c67a5ed9aa2974e752d3b79273ae79b9.png

But, in the 2nd image, as that trough relaxes and another is loading up to take its place a shortwave rides in on the leading edge of the next cold blast. And this is the result. The trough falls in behind it and we go brutally cold again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until something comes along and changes that pattern. 

EDC7519B-3310-4984-BC77-7AF80D2DADF4.thumb.png.bb2af3f03fcf45267d21903729425c76.png

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Tonights FV3 is a good example of what I was talking about earlier. I think the chances of us scoring a winter storm directly underneath the coldest air is next to none with the magnitude of these arctic outbreaks. However even after the pattern flips, there’s going to be some waxing and waning of the coldest air. So in those breaks where one cold air mass is moving out and the other is spilling in behind to replace it, those will be our key chances in my opinion.

The FV3 shows that here. In the first image, the trough is broad and deep over the eastern US and we are in brutally cold arctic air. But notice all the moisture is way down in the gulf.

37204807-A7CF-4551-B2BB-C354B5C6C196.thumb.png.c67a5ed9aa2974e752d3b79273ae79b9.png

But, in the 2nd image, as that trough relaxes and another is loading up to take its place a shortwave rides in on the leading edge of the next cold blast. And this is the result. The trough falls in behind it and we go brutally cold again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until something comes along and changes that pattern. 

EDC7519B-3310-4984-BC77-7AF80D2DADF4.thumb.png.bb2af3f03fcf45267d21903729425c76.png

Yeah too much cold could be a bad thing. Our biggest snows have come from marginal cold. Hopefully time is in our favor. 

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4 minutes ago, Athens said:

Yeah too much cold could be a bad thing. Our biggest snows have come from marginal cold. Hopefully time is in our favor. 

Around here I think we’ve just got to take the cold however we can get it and just hope the rest will work out. I think the fact that this will likely be a prolonged cold snap is in our favor. Normally we’d be trying to thread the needle and try to score a storm right on time with a few days cold spell. But we’re finally going to see some real blocking to help hold this cold around a while. And every single time these troughs start to lift and help relax the cold just enough, we’re going to have a shot at a winter storm.

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Around here I think we’ve just got to take the cold however we can get it and just hope the rest will work out. I think the fact that this will likely be a prolonged cold snap is in our favor. Normally we’d be trying to thread the needle and try to score a storm right on time with a few days cold spell. But we’re finally going to see some real blocking to help hold this cold around a while. And every single time these troughs start to lift and help relax the cold just enough, we’re going to have a shot at a winter storm.

True but it's even more so disappointing when we waste the (rare) cold we do get. (While the north can get snow above freezing.) Last year was La Nina and it was pretty much suppression city, with this year being El Nino I do wonder if that helps us any? Also is it wrong for me to want more than just a couple inches? ... I can't remember the last time we had 5"+. 😅

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3 minutes ago, Athens said:

True but it's even more so disappointing when we waste the (rare) cold we do get. (While the north can get snow above freezing.) Last year was La Nina and it was pretty much suppression city, with this year being El Nino I do wonder if that helps us any? Also is it wrong for me to want more than just a couple inches? ... I can't remember the last time we had 5"+. 😅

For me personally I’d rather see suppression and know that I’ve got a chance as the pattern relaxes, than watch an endless stream of cutters. But, out to the 22nd the Euro is not nearly as gung-ho on that kind of cold so it’s still a wait and see scenario. 

And having spent many winters in Athens, I am convinced that area, and to its east towards SC, is one of the hardest spots to get snow. I can still remember it feeling like torture being down in Athens with cold rain, while my family sent me pictures of all the snow back home in the mountains. And the way I see it, if we’re going to get snow we might as well make it worth our while and get all that we can take. Cause who knows when the next time we see it will be. Might as well be memorable.

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2 hours ago, Athens said:

True but it's even more so disappointing when we waste the (rare) cold we do get. (While the north can get snow above freezing.) Last year was La Nina and it was pretty much suppression city, with this year being El Nino I do wonder if that helps us any? Also is it wrong for me to want more than just a couple inches? ... I can't remember the last time we had 5"+. 😅

This year the subtropical jet is much more active, and most signs point to above normal precipitation. 

And no, it's not wrong. I'm still waiting on my 18". :classic_biggrin:

snowProbGE18.thumb.png.bcbc36a5063c7d804ba6a35298406fd4.png

 

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Another look, this time at 500 mb. Notice as the frames progress how the high latitude ridging starts to build. By the lower frames, the horseshoe ridging over the top completes the picture and says it all. Once than occurs, I expect all kinds of wonderful things to start happening.

Snap346062247-13.thumb.jpg.9c237b8921d090c1566c0de98b891a98.jpg

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From the latest NWS AFD

Quote

Moisture will begin to return to the area on Thursday, ahead of a
weak frontal boundary. The front will move slowly south through the
day on Friday, and will most likely stall over the FL panhandle by
late Friday. A second, much stronger, frontal boundary is expected
to impact the CWFA during the weekend. The models are progging a
good shot of cold air behind this frontal boundary, and a wintry mix
is possible behind the FROPA Saturday night into Sunday morning.

However, this is Day7 of the forecast period, and changes in the
forecast are likely.

 

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