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Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

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7 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

Repeat of the blizzard of ‘93 would be nice 

I was stuck at Young Harris College when that hit! The Dean wouldn't let us take our finals early so we could leave before it hit. It wasn't the most pleasant experience, but if I had been at home it might not of been so bad. 

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20 minutes ago, Jsmith said:

Remember Jan 2010 the recorded low of -12 was in Paulding County. 

We had 11” of snow that January as well. I remember people talking about that storm 10 days out. Came out of the gulf and it was 28 degrees. Snow stayed on the ground for nearly 2 weeks in shady spots. Seems like the past few years the models are crazy inconsistent! 

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4 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

We had 11” of snow that January as well. I remember people talking about that storm 10 days out. Came out of the gulf and it was 28 degrees. Snow stayed on the ground for nearly 2 weeks in shady spots. Seems like the past few years the models are crazy inconsistent! 

Yep and they was calling for an inch of snow. And low temps nowhere near that cold. 

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4 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

Just noticed on BOTH the 00z runs of GFS AND Canadian between 180-192 hrs there’s some wintry love potential!😍❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ Gimme gimme.

Yes definitely looking forward to his posts tomorrow 

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Well it is starting to look like we may have our first system to at least track for around the 27th/28th. I can't stress enough that at this range the letdown potential is high. So try as hard as you can to temper expectations, and try to just enjoy the process of trying to reel a storm in from a week out lol. 

Anyway, I do think this is the first real threat we've seen out of the pattern flip. The OP's are showing something at least fairly regularly, and more importantly ensemble support has went up significantly this afternoon and tonight in at least supporting a system on these dates. Ensemble support is key at this range and seeing how it grows or weakens over the coming days will really tell us everything we need to know for now. 

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Tonights GEFS.  I'll continue to use Blairsville as an example. (Excuse me trying to draw with a laptop touchpad lol)

1861792739_download(4)_LI.thumb.jpg.8bd93c9f44e6b2a86b4db8663d82a68a.jpg

Now try to ignore everything happening in the red circle, not all members are giving up on the midweek system but for now that's nothing more than noise. Now the thing to notice is just how many members are showing new snow around the 27th/28th. Some light, some heavy. But the key take away is that the majority of members, 15 by my count, are supporting snow on those dates, big or small. At 18z there were only around 10 members showing this, and only 6-7 at 12z. So for now support is growing. Oh and the Euro just came out and is also on board, so buckle up everyone.

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Good morning! Oh wait... it's 3:32 am. Wake up. 🛷

I have some good news to share if you'll wake up. Since I can't shake you and wake you up, I'll just sit here and talk to myself in the dark. But I see a light at the end of the tunnel! 🙂

 

I spy three opportunities coming up, and there is general agreement between the GFS and Euro on the first two, but they diverge on the last one. We are starting to get in the time frame where I thought we'd see better agreement, and this is a good start. 

The top two images are the 24th, middle two the 27th, and last two the 30th, with the GFS on the left and Euro on the right. 

NOT A FORECAST

 

composite-20.thumb.png.ad62f8d6cfb43457c7cd57f900a9f7b2.png

Not going to look past 10 days and even that is stretching it right now, but baby steps in the right direction. The models will continue to move around with placement and timing, so still nothing in concrete and these are NOT the final outcome. But I do like the last front coming through on the 30th. So right now, starting the 24th, it appears that there are opportunities every three days starting the 24th. You ready? 😉

NOT A FORECAST

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nc_41-20.thumb.png.113b8adc8d16436dde25d0386f3ce888.png

ecmwf_tsnow_nc_41-20.thumb.png.8a50f41ff7e3979230ac66ad2f3fd186.png

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019

GAZ001>007-011>013-019>021-030>032-041>043-201600-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-CHATTOOGA-
GORDON-PICKENS-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-HARALSON-
CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
319 AM EST SUN JAN 20 2019

...BLACK ICE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING...

DESPITE ELEVATED WINDS HELPING DRY THINGS OUT, SOME ROADWAYS WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FREEZE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER ALABAMA ARE
HEADED TOWARD PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WESTERN GEORGIA WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY BY 8AM. ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL FREEZE
ALLOWING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO
SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THIS REGION ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

 

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34 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Good morning! Oh wait... it's 3:32 am. Wake up. 🛷

I have some good news to share if you'll wake up. Since I can't shake you and wake you up, I'll just sit here and talk to myself in the dark. But I see a light at the end of the tunnel! 🙂

 

 

I spy three opportunities coming up, and there is general agreement between the GFS and Euro on the first two, but they diverge on the last one. We are starting to get in the time frame where I thought we'd see better agreement, and this is a good start. 

The top two images are the 24th, middle two the 27th, and last two the 30th, with the GFS on the left and Euro on the right. 

composite-20.thumb.png.be1b3cc59ca00c0e52bb2c51cc3be19c.png

 

Not going to look past 10 days and even that is stretching it right now, but baby steps in the right direction. The models will continue to move around with placement and timing, so still nothing in concrete. But I do like the last front coming through on the 30th. So right now, starting the 24th, it appears that there are opportunities every three days starting the 24th. You ready? 😉

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_nc_41-20.thumb.png.113b8adc8d16436dde25d0386f3ce888.png

ecmwf_tsnow_nc_41-20.thumb.png.8a50f41ff7e3979230ac66ad2f3fd186.png

Very nice!

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🙂

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Surface high pressure ahead of the ridge is set to develop in the mid-Atlantic
states, with easterly flow against the Southern Blue Ridge
Mountains creating a wedge of cold air that will settle into the
area Tuesday morning. Afterwards, the development of several
planetary Rossby Wave trains will force a fairly active pattern
for the remainder of the forecast period.


The wedge won't stay in place long as an active pattern quickly
moves the next storm system into the area early Wednesday morning.
Much like the last system, scattered showers may develop out
ahead of the main line of storms. Temps will be the highest
through the forecast period with highs in the 60s for most of the
area. the main line of convection looks to move through the area
Wednesday through Thursday morning, with thunderstorms possible
for Central Georgia. With cold air coming into place following the
cold front an additional shortwave kicking through on Friday
could spawn some snow flurries in the far north.


At the far end of the forecast period, another upper-level trough
sweeps through which could bring some light snow to the forecast
area. While models are still very divided on the details, it may
be the first chance of the year for some accumulations outside the

mountainous regions of the state. The event is too far out for
deeper details at this time, but be sure to monitor for further
updates as the system updates.
 

 

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Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove

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This is a decidedly tricky part of the medium range forecast. Most of the numerical models in recent days have at least flirted with the idea of bringing the main cAk vortex down from Hudson Bay into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Now if that happened, an immense cold wave with record-setting temperatures will occur over the eastern 2/3 of the nation. If the Arctic motherlode were to stay over Hudson Bay, the colder values in the U.S. would likely be transient, or in spurts, and might reach bothersome, but not truly dangerous levels. A method I have used over the years for determining the furthest south position of the cold core is to take the center of the forecast lowest 500MB height as well as the center of the lowest height anomaly. Bisecting the two points, in this case, will produce a position in Ontario just above the Soo Locks vicinity. Such a location would surely imply an abundance of bitter cold, as well as shortwaves/storms pulsing along the edge of the associated trough complex from the northern High Plains into Texas and the Gulf Coast, then up along the Eastern Seaboard. The western third of the country, under a thumb projection ridge, would likely stay mild and mostly dry.

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As bad as the storm in the near term is, the potential is present for something far worse in the January 25 - 29 time span. As I have alluded to, the amplified nature of the 500MB longwave pattern, along with an anchored Arctic vortex skirting the Great Lakes, would steer disturbances into the Gulf Coast and then up and off the Eastern Seaboard. The problem which may arise is that the storm(s) could interact with the motherlode in such a way as to merge or phase with the cold vorticity core, which creates two somewhat ominous scenarios. One of course would be for extensive snow, ice and wind, most, likely in the Mid-Atlantic and New England but also perhaps over Appalachia. The other worry: high-impact drainage of extremely cold air across the U.S. to the right of the Rocky Mountains. My advice is simple: keep monitoring the weather forecasts over the next ten days. 

 

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More from Larry

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When you consider data from analogs, climatology, and numerical models, you get the impression that the 11 - 15 day period could feature some of the coldest weather of the season so far. Even considering that the NWP guidance has had issues with data loss recently, the impression I am getting is that once we are into the mild West vs. cold/stormy Central, East pattern it will be hard to break out of. Yes, it is true that the GFS and GGEM ensemble packages show wakening of the cold core upper low after February 2. But note that the CFS and ECMWF series clamp down, keeping the eastern two-thirds of the nation mostly in colder values with apparent snow threats in the Midwest and Northeast. You can even make an argument for frozen precipitation potential as far south as Texas and Louisiana, should the Gulf Coast track be real.

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But the tropical forcing is very expansive over the Phases 6, 7, and 8 regions, and there is definite warm/moist advection into what will be a sub-Aleutian vortex and the subtropical jet stream which continues to bring higher moisture content into storms dropping into the lower latitudes of the U.S.
 
The clincher here is the positive 500MB height anomalies in the -EPO, -AO, and -NAO sectors, which should keep closed lows over further south locations such as Ontario, Quebec, and the Great Lakes. Some warm-ups may sneak into the lower 48 states in the second week of February. But analog outlines show an impressive re-build of higher latitude ridging, and a return to a deep cold core state around ON and MI which lasts into the first week of March. This means chances for important snow and ice will be present from the Great Plains to the Gulf and East Coast until winter erodes in early March.
 
Come on now. Aren't you secretly rooting for a blockbuster winter storm or blizzard to make the season complete?
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 19, 2019 at 10:05 P.M. CT

 

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