Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it.  No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time peri

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now.  With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're

Posted Images

14 minutes ago, Shannon said:

18z doesn’t allow for any phasing as well. I’m sure the ensembles will tell a different story. 

It's all going to be really close. That's a steep angle for our wave to try and dive from Montana/Dakotas all the way down to the gulf and try and round the bend and get neutral all before it gets past us. First frame is 0z last night which showed widespread snow, notice our energy is nice and consolidated and has achieved a neutral tilt. Last frame is the new run and is much closer than 6z and 12 z but still didn't round the bend in time in order to pop the low.  Height of the western ridge will be key on how quickly it can dig.2084082697_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh162_trend(1).thumb.gif.48351fc3d83c9e78f21c305988bce3ab.gif

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Shannon said:

Yeah that’s the fear. It’s gonna really suck if we can’t get anything the next week or two. 

It'm only looking out to next weekends threat, but means definitely dropped. This is just part of model watching though, positive trends will not last for 7 straight days. Although I had hoped to at least see more consistency from the ensembles. That being said the EPS hasn't been as bullish as the GEFS yet and maybe there is a reason for that.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Shannon said:

In  addition, the models are not depicting as nice of a pattern either down the road. 

Yeah... I noticed it this morning. Didn't even want to talk about it lol. Pattern breaking down fast on the ensembles now after start of Feb. This still doesn't change the fact that we're going to see 2-3 chances of snow though, just need to cash in.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah... I noticed it this morning. Didn't even want to talk about it lol. Pattern breaking down fast on the ensembles now after start of Feb. This still doesn't change the fact that we're going to see 2-3 chances of snow though, just need to cash in.

And this could just be noise at longer ranges. I’m not saying I believe it will breakdown, just trying to make sense of what the models may be seeing. The MJO signal climbing into phase 5 is my guess, getting the pacific jet raging again. But it may also not be picking up on the fact that it should move through the bad phases rather quickly. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Educator
1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

And this could just be noise at longer ranges. I’m not saying I believe it will breakdown, just trying to make sense of what the models may be seeing. The MJO signal climbing into phase 5 is my guess, getting the pacific jet raging again. But it may also not be picking up on the fact that it should move through the bad phases rather quickly. 

Hopefully. All I know is at the end of the run we were up to near 70 degrees 😂

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

But again, these are concerns that have nothing to do with our snow chances over the coming weeks. So for now let’s just keep our eyes on the prize, as we should get at least a few chances at it.

Fingers crossed... 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's what I think is going on. First, look at this image.

The problem with this run is lack of -NAO, and even -AO.  First, notice the magenta colors. To get a strong NAO block, the red area has to build north to the magenta circle.Right now the look is a neutral NAO, even though the high over low configuration is correct, it's just not far enough north, and that entire combination needs to shift north to be effective. 

Out west, the west coast ridge (green arrow) is in a similar situation, it just needs to build further north to the green circle. To have the block that the GEFS was seeing two days ago, those two ridges, the west coast ridge (-EPO) and Greenland ridge (-NAO), need to connect over the top (dotted blue line). 

gefs_z500a_nh_29-20.thumb.png.a44cc200459b3d961bdac69bb187d063.png

 

After a bump in the NAO, all models show a negative trend, so over time, I would expect to see it build back, 

gefs_nao_18-20.png.f08d19d382bdd2eaeb15710d72e62233.png

 

This was two days ago, and you can see the horseshoe shaped blocking.

gefs_z500a_noram_43-18-20.thumb.jpg.73b9b6803a607f80ecf8aa4da10a5caa.jpg

Without the NAO block, we will see clippers. That's not to say we can't get snow, but it's not the ideal situation. Fluke run? Could be. The models are known to loose storms only to find them again, so not to concerned yet. We saw how the models can over amplify the other day when temps went below zero, so we're still seeing a lot of swings. We had a pretty good positive trend going, so this may just be a bump int he road, we'll see in the morning. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Still looking into next week for my overnight travel event with students. Leaving Wednesday morning, returning Friday evening. If freezing rain occurs Tuesday night in Gwinnett and schools close our opportunity to travel is gone. I'm watching so closely and very nervous. 

Edited by JenRay
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.



×
×
  • Create New...