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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities


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I’ll take #12 for $500, Bob.

@RickyD

Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happ

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Why is that cold air being pushed away from us?  Has Florida had a freeze yet and will they this year? I was thinking this system would be the one, but all of a sudden they are back to upper teens and low 20's. for lows for us here in the North..even with the snow pack

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Hey Steve, although this is the first year I've followed the forums this closely, I was wondering. Has there ever been this much flip flopping of models and disagreement between meteorologists/weather fanatics before? It seems to me that this winter has not only been hectic as far as model disagreement/prediction vs. reality, but also between forcasters themselves. Even through it all I love learning about the weather and seeing different opinions.

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Euro takes a big jump back up in snow totals. Trends are going back good right now. Roller coaster in full effect lol. Saw someone on AmericanWx say that this is similar to the modeling trends we saw last year with the frontal system. Models looked really good at 4-5 days out, then backed way off initially overplaying the effect of the lower level downsloping, and then had to play catch up late as they picked up on the SW flow aloft supporting light precip longer. Like I said the other day, it’s just gonna be last minute before we really have a good feel for this one.

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Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

Euro takes a big jump back up in snow totals. Trends are going back good right now. Roller coaster in full effect lol. Saw someone on AmericanWx say that this is similar to the modeling trends we saw last year with the frontal system. Models looked really good at 4-5 days out, then backed way off initially overplaying the effect of the lower level downsloping, and then had to play catch up late as they picked up on the SW flow aloft supporting light precip longer. Like I said the other day, it’s just gonna be last minute before we really have a good feel for this one.

Everything (mostly)that has come through this year has had a lot of moisture with it.

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6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Euro takes a big jump back up in snow totals. Trends are going back good right now. Roller coaster in full effect lol. Saw someone on AmericanWx say that this is similar to the modeling trends we saw last year with the frontal system. Models looked really good at 4-5 days out, then backed way off initially overplaying the effect of the lower level downsloping, and then had to play catch up late as they picked up on the SW flow aloft supporting light precip longer. Like I said the other day, it’s just gonna be last minute before we really have a good feel for this one.

Can you post the model picture you are referencing?

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8 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Euro takes a big jump back up in snow totals. Trends are going back good right now. Roller coaster in full effect lol. Saw someone on AmericanWx say that this is similar to the modeling trends we saw last year with the frontal system. Models looked really good at 4-5 days out, then backed way off initially overplaying the effect of the lower level downsloping, and then had to play catch up late as they picked up on the SW flow aloft supporting light precip longer. Like I said the other day, it’s just gonna be last minute before we really have a good feel for this one.

Yeah I was asking you last night about that system last year and I just couldn’t remember much about it. The 18z NAM should be interesting. We are in that window now to where the hi res models should get a good feel

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2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

If we can get about .25 to .6 of moisture and hive just the regular 10:1 rates and have changeover quick, it would be nice

For NW GA I think they stand a good chance at approaching .25 with a quick changeover. Things become less and less certain to the east. Both in terms of total qpf and timing of changeover. 

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1 minute ago, Ham360 said:

Just got my winter watch.  It is saying starting Monday Night and up to 2 inches...why Monday night.  I though the cold was coming Tuesday??

I wondered too, why they didn`t include Wednesday, due to the high threat of black ice.

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1 minute ago, Wendy4 said:

I wondered too, why they didn`t include Wednesday, due to the high threat of black ice.

There will more than likely be a Special Weather Statement for that Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 

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