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End of January Winter Weather Possibilities


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1 minute ago, Rioderreiser said:

Out of curiosity, what makes it so hard? I've never heard anyone explain it before and would love to know why.

Well for a storm like this one approaching from the NW, the moisture has to cross the mountains on its way to you and downsloping dries it out. Also the cold has to get around the mountains and can often be delayed in reaching you. This is what happened in December 2017, plenty of moisture from the gulf but cold couldn’t get around the mountains in time. This area also has terrible trouble with warm noses with the big storms causing mixing or rain. This area doesn’t stop in Georgia. It goes all the way up the 85 corridor into the Carolinas. Often referred to as the lee-side screw zone.

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I’ll take #12 for $500, Bob.

@RickyD

Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happ

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7 minutes ago, Rioderreiser said:

It sounds like a repeat of last year where ATL got a good storm and we got (yet another) cold rain with a flurry or two right at the end that melted by lunchtime.

That's how it is most times. We need a true southern slider if you expect to see anything more. The wedge hasn't helped us much either. 

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Well for a storm like this one approaching from the NW, the moisture has to cross the mountains on its way to you and downsloping dries it out. Also the cold has to get around the mountains and can often be delayed in reaching you. This is what happened in December 2017, plenty of moisture from the gulf but cold couldn’t get around the mountains in time. This area also has terrible trouble with warm noses with the big storms causing mixing or rain. This area doesn’t stop in Georgia. It goes all the way up the 85 corridor into the Carolinas. Often referred to as the lee-side screw zone.

It's the snow hole of north Georgia. Then we get the pesky warm nose so icing can be really problematic. The one time I've seen a cold rain at 26°F.

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I know it will change many times over, but for now, assuming there might be some wintery mess on Tuesday, when are they thinking it would begin?  (I'm thinking about how hard it is to convince my husband that he should leave work early in these situations.  It's like the world will end if he leaves a little early and that is NOT the case.). It sure would make my life easier if it could hold off till later in the evening.

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13 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I know it will change many times over, but for now, assuming there might be some wintery mess on Tuesday, when are they thinking it would begin?  (I'm thinking about how hard it is to convince my husband that he should leave work early in these situations.  It's like the world will end if he leaves a little early and that is NOT the case.). It sure would make my life easier if it could hold off till later in the evening.

You must be a mom, too! Oh, I just looked at your name! 

I always push my husband to leave early on these days, too. I thought after 9 hours trying to get home during that snow a few years ago, he’d learn- but nope! 🙂

I’m still hoping for snow though! 

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8 minutes ago, Amanda said:

You must be a mom, too! Oh, I just looked at your name! 

I always push my husband to leave early on these days, too. I thought after 9 hours trying to get home during that snow a few years ago, he’d learn- but nope! 🙂

I’m still hoping for snow though! 

Yes!  I'm sure it was the same year -- a commute that normally takes 45 minutes in traffic took him 8 1/2 hours!  

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Yep--hubs worked 3 miles from home, and decided to wait instead of coming home when I asked him.  It took him 2.5 hours.  Still, much better than his sister, who got stuck, abandoned her car, and walked up/down Cobb Pkwy with her two girls until her husband could meet her.  Their ordeal was 8+ hours. 

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34 minutes ago, Bagsmom said:

I know it will change many times over, but for now, assuming there might be some wintery mess on Tuesday, when are they thinking it would begin?  (I'm thinking about how hard it is to convince my husband that he should leave work early in these situations.  It's like the world will end if he leaves a little early and that is NOT the case.). It sure would make my life easier if it could hold off till later in the evening.

Tuesday afternoon into the evening. NWS mentions that timing could potentially lag toward Tuesday night so it’s possible.

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11 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Tuesday afternoon into the evening. NWS mentions that timing could potentially lag toward Tuesday night so it’s possible.

Would also be better for accumulations if we get to that point 

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GFS ensembles support for the Euro definitely went down at 18z. I can’t stress exercising caution on excitement levels right now enough. IMO the OP Euro is on an island right now. Rain changing to very light snow event is much more likely right now. Time for things to change, but taking the Euro like gospel right now would be unwise. It’s a good model to have in your corner, but it can be and is wrong all the time. Give it a day or two then come back to it when we get some hi-res guidance in good range.

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2 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

 Dont models tend to lose confidence as we get closer and then bring the storm back? 

It can happen, but it’s not something that always happens. Last time we were tracking a threat it was for this past weeks rain storm. When the ensembles lost that storm they never came back, and as we know it was for good reason. The Euro is the only thing that has showed amounts like that so far. It’s own ensembles haven’t really supported what that run showed either. Until there is more support for the euro, the GFS looks more realistic.

 

2 minutes ago, Mountainbuck said:

 And I think every system I have ever followed waffles back and forth up to the day and then it either over performs or is a bust. 

Things move around some most of the time. But it’s not always the case. The early December storm for far NE GA and the Carolinas was modeled extremely well from more than a week out. I’m not trying to tell everyone that nothings going to happen, simply not to pin their hopes on getting exactly what the euro is saying when it is an outlier in the guidance.

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On 1/24/2019 at 7:58 PM, HiTekRedNek said:

And somebody plan something super important that cant be rescheduled!!!!

I'm in Dawsonville and have an appointment in Gainesville with my new pulmonologist on Tuesday afternoon.  If I don't get to see him, I go without my weekly infusions for a while.  I'd say that is super important!

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