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Showing content with the highest reputation since 11/20/2020 in Posts

  1. Good morning! I'm getting my smeller ready for all the great aromas today... πŸ™‚ Our exiting trough is zipping on out to sea this morning while our next weather maker is swinging down out of the Rockies, and that system is going to bring some heavy rain and colder air to north Georgia starting this weekend and into early next week. I think I'll let the NWS do the talking to start with... I know most of you don't want to know anything about the rain... so. Let's look at the ensemble mean for
    9 points
  2. Good morning! It's Thanksgiving eve! πŸ¦ƒπŸ™‚ I'm ready for my turkey! πŸ™‚ But first things first, it's time for the weather! Our first closed upper level low is sitting over Kansas this morning and it has already started pulling in some very cold air back behind it. The map (500 mb isobars/850-700-500 mb winds/temps) shows those cold temps that are starting to pour into the country riding on strong northerly winds wrapping around the low. Although this first low is relatively weak and the energy with it will be pulling off to the northeast, I want to show a few characteristic
    5 points
  3. Good morning! Enjoying this great weather? You get one more day of it before things begin to change. We've been locked into this zonal pattern for too long now, but the atmosphere is starting to get restless, and we'll start to see the start of those changes beginning this week. The morning map (850 mb winds and isobars/dewpoints/water vapor/radar) show moisture beginning to increase in advance of an area of low pressure. That low will drag a cold front across our area tonight and someone may see a shower, but probably not. That low is lifting northeast, and as it does it takes most of th
    4 points
  4. Good morning! Another relatively mild morning for late November, and today and tomorrow are going to be the last of the nice warm days for a while. Below normal temperatures and unsettled weather are going to be settling in, so get out and enjoy today and tomorrow if you can! On the morning map (500 mb isobars and winds/temps/water vapor) we can see an upper level trough rotating counter-clockwise over the Hudson Bay area, and the main axis of the trough is swinging to the NE. It's moving pretty quickly and because of that, it's leaving a piece of itself over the southwest US in the
    3 points
  5. Sigh.......... I love winters in Georgia πŸ˜‚
    3 points
  6. Good morning! Things are starting to get interesting folks... πŸ˜‰ Still a long way off in weather days but the GFS has been going all out for snow here. Boy, do I have a lot to show today... hope you have some time. πŸ™‚ FIRST... none of this is a forecast. We are tracking winter weather like you would follow a football game. You have good runs/bad runs just like you have good plays and bad plays. My team may do well (snow) or your team may do better (rain or nothing). We don't know the outcome until we get close to the end of the game. For all we know, it will be warm and sunny. F
    3 points
  7. Chorus we sing at church There's revival in the air tonight. It means the spirit is moving. Something is stirring for the Dec 4-7 th time frame excitement
    3 points
  8. 2 points
  9. I like that the CMC and Euro were both still close to showing something on the northern fringes of the 2nd system. Wish ensembles looked better for that time frame, but hopefully it's just flat or suppression keeping things anemic and we can trend back to more favorable. I'm all in on whatever kind of flakes I can score on the back side Monday but I doubt I'll be breaking out a ruler unless the 2nd one comes back around.
    2 points
  10. A good recap for us who get confused about Miller A vs Miller B https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm
    2 points
  11. LOL! The NWS didn't like the stuff I was posting about that and then they were the ones that busted big time. I remember it very well. πŸ˜‰
    2 points
  12. My dad lives in Ellijay on a mountain so I went ahead and gave him the β€œhey, um, perk your ears up” comment yesterday. I’m ready to ride this coaster! πŸ™Œ
    2 points
  13. I am the wrong person to be quoting here because of my poor memory at age 60, but the pattern reminds me of 2014. I KNOW it could all disappear in the next couple of days but it has been a 'coons age' since we have seen that kind of consistency from any runs as far as a chance of snow in N Georgia. I amnot holding my breath, but I am hoping for my grandchildren there in Calhoun. I have a district Christmas function the 5th here at my Church, so unless the Lord sends some here like one run of the Canadian hinted I would just enjoy the picture or live through others posts.
    2 points
  14. Good morning! The cold front has pushed through the area and brought cooler and drier air along with it. The morning map (500 mb winds and isobars/dewpoints/water vapor) shows the upper level trough to our north. The trough is responsible for the weather here this morning, but it will quickly slide off to the east and be replaced by a weak area of high pressure that is sitting to our west. Closer to home, you can see the surface winds bringing in the cooler air. These are dewpoints, not temperatures. Well, you saw the snow on the Euro yeste
    2 points
  15. Before I even got to the last sentence my first thought was that you're gonna love that change in convenience lol. Lots of extremely beautiful areas in this county I'd love to live if it wasn't for the up to almost an hour drive at times just to get to town.
    2 points
  16. Yeah I'm having a hard time buying in to much outside of the pattern looks interesting. This is still well into fantasy land but the consistency of some mischief on multiple model runs in a row is interesting and it is getting a little ensemble love. No more Sky Valley reports this winter though, I am about the same elevation as you are now. We just built a house in Clayton. I'm going to miss the elevation but the not the 30 minute one way runs to the grocery store and work.
    2 points
  17. That run was about as close to a bona-fide blizzard we'd ever see in these parts. 20-50 mph wind gusts. A wild solution, but not an impossible one that can be ruled out. One things for certain, given the consistency, the signal for this timeframe is real. Probably won't pan out in the end per usual, but this isn't just the models being crazy.
    2 points
  18. I've been trying to avoid it all together honestly. I don't trust my own emotions lol. Just watching the way the EPS has been headed the last few days I started thinking, man these models are about to pop something crazy out there in the next couple weeks haha.
    2 points
  19. Always a challenge. πŸ™‚
    1 point
  20. All kinds of data issues tonight ------------------- SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 2249Z THU NOV 26 2020 ...DATAFLOW ISSUE UPDATE... NCO continues to investigate the ongoing issue with the flow of model and observational data to the field. Known impacts from this ongoing issue include: - Observational data, including METAR and aircraft data are not being disseminated to the NWS field offices, WCOSS, the FAA, the DOD, and the airlines since 20Z. - Data is not being disseminated to the tg
    1 point
  21. Someone asked a similar question on the NGW page and I told them the same thing. We may not know until Saturday or Sunday the specific details as far as who gets what and how much. There is a lot of energy flying around on the models right now and how it all plays out is going to be fun to watch no matter what. I find ULL's extremely fascinating.
    1 point
  22. Tonight's GFS is, I think, the most realistic run so far when it comes to distribution of the snow. My fingers are crossed that over the next few days we see some positive developments on the mid/late week possibilities, otherwise this setup just doesn't really excite me at all. Backside snows always seem to underperform even in favored areas of GA.
    1 point
  23. Couldn't agree more! I have learned over the years in Rabun to never get too excited about NW Flow type scenarios. In my time in Sky Valley, I have only ever had one produce for over an inch. In Rabun the only areas that ever really seem to do well with that are areas like Germany and Black Rock Mountain because of their topography and having good NW exposure. It will take copious amounts of moisture to end up with any sort of winter storm. I'm attaching a map to show the normal distribution of NW Flow Snow. I have done a lot of research on the topic just because it has always interests me bec
    1 point
  24. I liked the looks earlier in the week for sure. I don’t like counting on elevation for accumulation. That means a miss for most of N Ga. Cold and cloudy is just dreary. Flakes falling makes it much more exciting
    1 point
  25. And they are all jumping in on it which is surprising.
    1 point
  26. The ensembles are definitely keying in on that backside snow from the first storm. Normally wouldn't be thrilled with that, but it's early December so beggars can't be choosers lol.
    1 point
  27. Ooh. 12z bringing it back somewhat... yeah come on.
    1 point
  28. Southern Folks and SNOW ........ πŸ˜‡ Hilarious
    1 point
  29. I was just noticing this. Did Cranky leave Twitter? What a strange guy
    1 point
  30. 1 point
  31. Just getting around to looking at all of today's runs and I'll definitely take whatever member 16 on the GEFS was having at 18z lol
    1 point
  32. Is that why everybody was pounding hellbent for leather to the local Walmart today? I thought they'd gotten another toilet paper shipment in or something.
    1 point
  33. I know it is, that's why I was wondering. πŸ™‚ I'd know those initials anywhere! πŸ™‚
    1 point
  34. Last Run by GFS brings sanity, or cruelness ....So we WAIT TO THE NEXT
    1 point
  35. bout to give my family the "it may be coming talk"
    1 point
  36. Why are you showing up as a guest?
    1 point
  37. Not sure, I know he follows you though thru NGW itself! You’re in prime position this year... lucky ! Haha
    1 point
  38. Then he's not far from us here in Big Canoe. I share my NGW FB post to two different Ellijay FB groups. Maybe he follows those. πŸ™‚
    1 point
  39. LOL! You never know! It certainly looks very interesting, and the upper air features from the Euro and GFS are quite similar. Throw in a little Christmas magic and voila! πŸ™‚ β„οΈβ›„πŸŽ…
    1 point
  40. Yea, we're not quite as isolated here. I can be in Jasper in about 20 minutes, same for Dawsonville. Plus we have a grocery and places to eat at Steve Tate and 53, and that is only 10-15 minutes. Some people back in the far reaches of Big Canoe drive 20-30 minutes to get out of Big Canoe.
    1 point
  41. Have had a significant snow event in 2 out of the last 3 years in this early December time period. That alone seems super improbable, making it 3 out of 4 somehow would be absolutely unbelievable haha.
    1 point
  42. Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove
    1 point
  43. Well, heard a noise in the front of the car, so decided not to drive it today. I suspect a lose front sway bar mount, but I want it checked out before I thrash it around again. I started looking again at the period around the 4th and 5th to see what the GFS was seeing to make it think it might snow, and found the culprit. This little bowling ball upper level low is the system that could potentially do it. Here's a look at the winds from 850-700 mb and generally when you see a low the far south in the winter, you'd better start paying attention. The GF
    1 point
  44. Good morning! Another fine fall day yesterday and another one like it today! We are starting off a little warmer this morning, and as of 5:25 am I am 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Moisture is starting to creep back in to the area and that will raise out temperatures slightly as we head into the weekend. The morning map (surface winds/850 mb winds/temps/water vapor) shows the moisture returning as the surface high rotates the moisture in off the Atlantic and the Gulf. The brownish tint in the images represents dry air, and that area is continuing to move off to the east. The little
    1 point
  45. 1. Still too soon to tell. Severe potential is on the table, but for now it's wait and see. Just like with snow, a lot of moving parts and small changes make a big difference. 2. Mostly dependent on the timing of the Wednesday system I think. The slower it is the more potential for showers to potentially linger into the early part of Thanksgiving day. Again, best approach is probably just a wait and see for a bit.
    1 point
  46. Also, this pattern is looking ripe for some fantasy land model snows coming up. Everyone stay leery and try not to get fooled into excitement over it lol.
    1 point
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