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Ok... going out on a limb by creating this post, but I believe there is enough model justification to warrant it. No guarantees! 😜 The models are all beginning to show threats for this time period even though we're 10 days or so away. The mythical blocking is finally appearing, major cold intrusions, and glimpses of snow across the southeast are all part of the picture. This is unfolding exactly as expected and it appears that winter may be settling in for quite a while. The models are still all over the place, so continue to expect large swings in the model runs. Later this eveni

Ok, I've been playing today. So for your viewing pleasure, we're going old school. Here's your "Local on the 8's" the way the Weather Channel USE to do it in the early 90's, and this is real live data. 🙂 Even picked out the music myself. It's too bad I can't schedule this to upload to my website. twc.mp4

Ok folks... here are my thoughts about what is going on right now. With such an active pattern, the models are totally worthless and of no help at all past 5 days, not even the ensembles. We're not talking about the little movements that models make, we're talking 1000 mile swings. Yea, they can spot systems, but those "things" end up getting rearranged 25 times before they get here. I'm confident we'll see multiple chances for snow over the next month or so, but when and where are totally unknown right now. But I know I've said that before, and I know you're getting tired of hearing "he

I’ll take #12 for $500, Bob.

Guys and girls on this site I just wanna take this moment and apologize for all the negative things I’ve said recently. I know it might seem like an attack on people that know more than me but it’s really not. I want snow just as much as I know Steve does. Please accept this apology.

I'm telling you... it's coming, and we may see a big one! All the cards are on the table.

@RickyD

Oh behalf of all us snow lovers that might get left out this time, I found this beauty at 324hours on the GFS... lol I think we all need some eye candy at this point while we hold out to see what happens tomorrow 😂😂😂

Kuchera ratios. NOT A FORECAST

Seeing as we're quoting Bon Jovi, things are kinda iffy weather wise, and I have nothing at the moment to contribute to the analytical discussion let's try a bit of humor.... Living on a Prayer (Southern Winter Re-Mix) Once upon a time not so long ago NOAA used to work around the clock, staff's been on furlough And we’re down on our luck, it's tough, so tough Steve looks at the models all day, looking for a way He tries to bring us hope, for snow, for snow He says, we've got to hold on to the trends we’ve got It doesn't matter if the CAD’s in place or not We'

A little closer look at the GFS ensemble (GEFS) for the next 16 days.

Here's what I'm thinking right now.... and this is simply me speculating on what I'm seeing and hearing. The models are trending further south and colder. Cold air damming (CAD) is always poorly modeled and generally underestimated. Massive amounts of moisture (2-3") are to be expected. Those people in the CAD favored areas should be on alert for potential changes in your forecast. That includes areas as far southwest as the north and east Atlanta suburbs. The positioning and strength of the surface high to the north and the location and strength of the low to the south w

What the heck... NOT A FORECAST This is just eye candy... NOT A FORECAST Again, this does not take into account the temperatures from the surface to the upper levels where snow would form. Entertainment purposes only!!! THIS WILL CHANGE!!!

Well... I think it may be time to start over with a new thread. Great opportunities for winter type weather with lots of cold air around. So.... that being said, let's see where it goes! ❄️⛷️🛷💮

Dang it. I'm always out doing stuff when things happen. But at last, the lost snow.

Ok folks... I'm thinking the Euro is on to something between the 26th-29th. There is support from the ensemble mean and the control run, and we are fully in the blocking at that point. It's a long way off but I think we may be on to something. Expect the operational to keep moving around, so don't put a lot of faith in that just yet, but we'll keep watching. 🙂 Here we go!

Good Tuesday morning to everyone! Nothing earth shattering to report on from over night except that our foot of snow went away. That's ok though, our chance are coming. Right now you can expect the models to show some crazy solutions as they hunt back and forth trying to determine a solution. If you are an educator, and you are not in the "Educator" group (look under your avatar), let me know and I'll add you. No special prizes or treats (I know how you all work...! ) but I'd like to highlight those that dedicate their career in helping others learn. That's what I try to do here and I ha

Good morning! I'm getting my smeller ready for all the great aromas today... 🙂 Our exiting trough is zipping on out to sea this morning while our next weather maker is swinging down out of the Rockies, and that system is going to bring some heavy rain and colder air to north Georgia starting this weekend and into early next week. I think I'll let the NWS do the talking to start with... I know most of you don't want to know anything about the rain... so. Let's look at the ensemble mean for

Good morning! I'm guessing everyone made it through yesterday's weather ok? I hope you're not tired of the rain just yet, because you're going to have at least another week of it. Yes, at least 7 days of rain every day. Here's the additional rainfall that some of you may see. As soon as I get yesterday's rainfall, I'll share it with you. There are still people in Georgia without power this morning, and this what it looked like around 6:30 AM I think everyone is more interested in the next several weeks and what that might bring. My first comment is thi

Well now we know the secret, send you shopping and we will get snow

That's 'delaying school' cold!!!

Guys... ye of little faith. 😄 Patience. The forecast is unfolding as planned. You are putting WAY too much emphasis on the modeling solutions right now. The changes that are forcing this pattern flip are well known at this point (seasonal jet changes, major stratospheric warming, weak Modoki el Nino, placement of warm/cool pools in the oceans, low solar), and the tropospheric response to those is well known. The models ARE showing what's coming, but you have to pay close attention to the details of those. All of those details are hidden in the chaos they are spitting out right now. We do kno

Sure you do. But I get e9 for the win!

As Forum Pastor I adorn my cloak----- and cite my Prayer for all our Teachers Oh Lord, let it snow. Let it drift and let it blow. In the morning, no real fuss, Just enough to stop the bus. Enough to make the county say: "There will be no school today." Let the radio report: "Snow's deep!" And I'll roll over for more sleep. Then later on, say maybe ten, I'll turn the radio on again. Just in time to hear them say: "It's strange, the snow has gone away." And then I'll know, You made it stop. So I can go to the mall and shop. Please Lord, just hear my teacher's pl

DISCLAIMER - NOT A FORECAST... and will probably NEVER be a forecast here. You know... I HAVE to share this because this is the prettiest eye candy I've ever seen over Georgia. Ever. Don't look too long though... it will make your heart beat way too fast. Just brief glimpses. 😜 NOT A FORECAST

Let me emphasize that DO NOT LOOK PAST 3-4 DAYS ON THE OPERATIONAL RUNS RIGHT NOW.

This is a full week out, and still I find myself still checking this thread obsessively.

Both the Euro and GFS "see" some winter precip for Friday/Saturday, but temps don't really support snow at the moment. But hey... let's roll with it. 🙂 NOT A FORECAST

My normal setup 🙂 There is another computer underneath the Dell 4K monitor and another one in the living room, all doing weather/webcam/media stuff. In this image, the top monitor is the extended screen for my laptop (which is a 4K screen also) My two other computers http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/weather-computers

I am not going to even show you the snow maps... It would be criminal. 🙂 You know... like more than a foot. . Oh wait... that happened last year as well. 😛 A lot of the snow on those maps would fall as something other than snow. Still.....

I got it. Tried to stop myself from even looking but couldn't resist lol *DEFINITELY NOT A FORECAST* I'm not even exaggerating when I say that was maybe the most beautiful storm I've ever seen modeled. Just absolute perfection. Shame it's so far out in time. But still positive signs at just how much potential exists going forward. This is exactly what I was talking about with hoping that maybe our 2nd cold shot can setup the trough in a better position.

Good Monday morning! Did everyone get some high winds last night? Fun huh? 🙂 The sun will return today and it will be visible through New Years day (darker at night...). After that, the rain returns. Here's what the big picture looks like this morning. The front has cleared the north Georgia area and is pressing southeast at the moment, you can see the cooler and drier air to our west and northwest As of today, I officially declare a Winter Weather Watch for January 6-9 time period. 🙂 Yes, I have that power. 😛 The models have been consistently pointing to the possi

Good Monday morning! Let's get right to it! Can you say active period? Close calls? The Euro operational is the most bullish at the moment but the GFS ensemble is right there with it. And that's just this week. 🙂 The weekend is a totally different system that we'll need to watch. If you read the morning Extended Forecast Discussion from the WPC, you'll notice how the models have widely varying solutions right now, so before we start looking too closely, we need to wait a day or three and see how things evolve. As long as we can keep the rain

Good Wednesday morning! Does it feel a little cooler out there this morning? Here's a look at temps and dewpoints. A little cooler and drier air has filtered in from the NW this morning. Don't get used to it though. Not this weekend, but next (Oct 5), you will feel fall. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles are locked in step right now, showing a 15 (GFS) - 20 (Euro) degree drop in temperatures that weekend. I know it can't come soon enough, but it's coming. This chart is the GFS for Lawrenceville. On Oct 9th, the Euro ensembles are showing a high of 70 i

Me, watching the models this evening.

So far this is my favorite forcast for our area

Me too. Kind of how I don't get excited no matter how much UGA is up on Bama

If we really want good mojo, we need to donate all our back-up supplies of toilet paper, batteries, tortilla chips, coffee - and whatever other snow prep supplies we have. And I should go sabotage my generator, just to be sure. The less ready I am, the more likely it is to snow. 😜

Appears to be lots of cold coming, so that's the first ingredient that is necessary for winter weather.

The basic setup for this weekend is a classic winter setup for us, and what I've been expecting to see. If you read the clip from the AFD, they talk about the "baroclinic boundary". Storms love to track along an area with a tight temperature gradient, and the Gulf coast is a natural boundary, especially during the winter months. Very cold air over land bumps into the warm moist air over the Gulf and forms a gradient or boundary. When storms form along that boundary, moisture is thrown up and over the cold air by low pressure, and they track along that line. This natural boundary is also t

I like what I see on the Euro for the 27th. All the upper air features are good and the upper level low is making it's own cold air to boot. Of course that doesn't mean it will be there tomorrow.

Nice to get mentioned!

OK! I kinda hijacked the weather discussion here.... time to get back on track! I'll post a few GFS ensemble images that I want you to hold on to, because we're going to compare these with the ones coming up in two days. If you read the daily post, you saw that the ensembles were trending snowier for Blairsville, so let's see how they do for other locations. I cannot possibly include every location, so I tried to get a scattered few. I may add a couple more but that will be it. The one thing that stands out to me are the very heavy snow amounts. It's one thing to see a bunch of 2-5" amou

Anyone getting excited now? 🙂

I'm excited b/c you said when you get excited, we can get excited!!!!! I can't wait!!!!!

I know everyone is really tired of the warm (but pretty normal) weather we've had for part of December. I do understand. I won't talk about how this was pretty much in every forecast, because I know you don't want to hear it now, so instead I'll talk about what I see going on and why I believe that we are entering a very exciting time. I am excited about the upcoming period. When I say period I mean from basically now through the end of February. There are going to be some exciting times ahead as we progress into a volatile winter pattern. Think about this. None of the winter foreca

Dog observations: Teacup Chihuahua stray: will no longer approach the door. Terrier/Chihuahua: walks to the front step, says a cuss word, and ran back to her cage. Aussie/German/collie mix took a leisurely stroll, did his business and took time to examine the puddles of water. I've got two (pine) branches down out front and its 38' Something sounded like it blew across the side of my house... can't figure out what it was though 😕