Preston

There has been considerable discussion going on through the daily weather post threads. If you check today's post Steve has updated twice today with a complete breakdown of how the models look.

Couldn't agree more! I have learned over the years in Rabun to never get too excited about NW Flow type scenarios. In my time in Sky Valley, I have only ever had one produce for over an inch. In Rabun the only areas that ever really seem to do well with that are areas like Germany and Black Rock Mountain because of their topography and having good NW exposure. It will take copious amounts of moisture to end up with any sort of winter storm. I'm attaching a map to show the normal distribution of NW Flow Snow. I have done a lot of research on the topic just because it has always interests me bec

Yeah I'm having a hard time buying in to much outside of the pattern looks interesting. This is still well into fantasy land but the consistency of some mischief on multiple model runs in a row is interesting and it is getting a little ensemble love. No more Sky Valley reports this winter though, I am about the same elevation as you are now. We just built a house in Clayton. I'm going to miss the elevation but the not the 30 minute one way runs to the grocery store and work.

Tornados are not really going to be the issue. It is damaging winds from the storm itself. A stray spin up tornado could happen but the bigger story is the winds and what should be concerning if anything. Somebody just posted the updated map on here with projected wind gusts.

I feel like the NWS out of GSP is downplaying this to some degree. It has absolutely dumped rain this morning in Rabun County already. I'm hopeful that this doesn't become another impactful event like Hurricane Irma but from what I am seeing on modeling and how fast this thing will be moving, it could be a bad situation.

As a a teacher "up here", I am hoping they do as well. It could be hazardous and our high school kiddos definitely don't need to be out driving in that nor our bus drivers on mountainous roads that are wooded on both sides. If this forecast holds up through tomorrow afternoon, I feel pretty confident that they will. They do a good job in being cautious in these regards.

Some early season eye candy for the Southeast on the 06Z GFS out in 10+ day fantasy land! 🤣 Some good surges of fall weather certainly look to be in order though!

Ricky, it could certainly happen. I’m not holding my breath but we have had an accumulating snow in March about 75% of the time I have lived in Sky Valley.

Higher elevations of Rabun had a little snow. I measured 0.8” total in Sky Valley and the Germany Valley NWS CoOp had I believe 1.7” but I believe you’re right, unless something strange happens, that is likely it for us up here too other than maybe some late season flurries.

Had 0.6” of snow in Sky Valley today on the snow board. I measured several other spots and got a few different measurements, this was the average but it was very windy.

Beginning to flurry in Tiger now.

From my classroom window, it looks like it is snowing on Black Rock Mountain in Rabun County and we are back down to 32 in Sky Valley. So it looks like the column is becoming saturated and we have some evap cooling going on.

Any other details on this event in Lumpkin County? Just seems weird, was it rain that just switched to heavy snow in a confined area? Seems unusual if that is the case, but that area wouldn't usually be impacted by any sort of convective snow shower development of that magnitude.

We have a dusting in Sky Valley, a little bit lighter than what it currently showing up on the Highlands webcam but the secondary roads look similar to this. School is on schedule thankfully though, we don't need anymore snow days says the teacher. It was 22 and still flurrying when I left the house. https://www.highlandschamber.org/about/webcams/

We are getting some light upslope flurries right now in Sky Valley above 3,000'. I drove through a heavier little burst on my way in to the house about an hour ago but unless the wind picks up to get some forcing going, we won't have much. We usually don't get in on the upslope action very much but when conditions are right like they are tonight, the Highlands Plateau from Sky Valley to Highlands can get some surprise snow out of a really moist Northwest Flow. The Highlands webcam was picking up a good burst earlier and it looked like the ground was turning white.