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  • Current view of the Great Smoky Mountains from the Look Rock webcam

    Welcome to the new North Georgia WX weather discussion site!

    This site is part of a family of websites and social media sites that will become an integrated source of weather information. I will eventually take the best from all my sites and bring them all together here. I'm still in the process of consolidating information as well as continuing to find better ways of communicating weather information.

    I make a post every morning in the "Daily Weather Post" section of the forums where I bring you the daily weather information, and look ahead at potential changes, as well as other interesting weather information. There are several pages of weather information including Area Forecast Discussions, and charts and maps under the menu item "Weather Data".

    I also post the Weather Prediction Center's "Extended Forecast Discussion" every morning in the Weather Discussion forum, and from there you'll gain additional insight into the weather over the next 3-7 days.

    There is a pinned post in the Weather Discussion forum for you to provide feedback to let me know what I'm doing right as well as what I'm doing wrong. When you sign up, you become part of the "Member" group which has certain elevated rights/restrictions that allow you to post images etc, but more importantly, you can selectively follow any forum or post and get automatic updates.

    I hope you enjoy the site!

    Steve


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    • Not a lot of weather to talk about for today and tomorrow, so I needed to catch up on a few things today. Starting later tomorrow the rain will start to make its comeback.   WPC 7 Day Rainfall   Georgia is once again in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for late Monday into Tuesday.   But I have a feeling that's not what many people want to know. 😉   I'm always debating the best way to visually convey what the models are depicting so that everyone will understand. I use to provide more detail but for some I was talking over their head, and I always had to go back and explain the point I was trying to make, and that's one reason I like to post the WPC Short Term and Extended Forecast Discussions. The discussions provide insight to what the WPC is thinking and what models they are basing their thoughts on and why. You can find those here: Short Term Forecast Extended Forecast Discussion   Here are the 3 main ensembles and how they believe this next system will evolve.    One thing for certain, cold air will be arriving. Here are the potential temperature anomalies from the Euro and GFS   Actual temps from the GFS look like this.   That's it for now. We need to get closer in time to narrow down the potential impacts from the Wednesday system if there will be any.  I hope everyone has a great Saturday evening! I'll try to get back on schedule tomorrow! 🙂  
    • Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 22 2020 - 12Z Mon Feb 24 2020 An energetic storm system expected to impact the Southwest on Saturday, Central Rockies/Plains on Sunday, and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Monday... Rain and mountain snow return to the Northwest on Sunday reaching the northern High Plains by Monday... After a day of tranquil conditions across much of the country on Friday, unsettled weather is expected to move quickly into the southwestern U.S. followed by the Pacific Northwest this weekend. A large high pressure system responsible for the tranquil weather will gradually weaken and then slide off the East Coast during the next few days.  Chilly conditions across the eastern half of the country will gradually moderate to above normal levels by Monday as winds shift to a more southerly direction.  Meanwhile, a low pressure system that has been developing over the eastern Pacific is taking aim at the southwestern U.S. This storm system will tap into moisture originating deep from the tropical Pacific and begin to spread rain into the Desert Southwest today with the possibility of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. The heaviest rainfall looks to be concentrated in the higher elevations of western New Mexico and south-central Arizona where rainfall totals ranging between 1 and 2 inches is possible. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been issued for these areas due to heavy rainfall rates potentially causing areas of flash flooding today.  In addition, mountain snow is expected from the southern Sierra Nevada and the Wasatch to the Colorado Rockies through this weekend. By Sunday, this storm system is forecast to intensify as it moves into the central High Plains.  Showers and some thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop and expand across the central Plains toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley through Sunday night. Some wintry precipitation is also possible farther to the north from across the central Plains into the upper Midwest and the lower Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday morning.  The southern Appalachians could also see wintry precipitation developing Monday morning as thunderstorms will likely be moving across the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley ahead of the intensifying storm. Farther north, another low pressure system will cause an increase in showers and and mountain snow over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. The Olympics and Cascades will receive more mountain snow while the valleys and coastal areas see rain. The storm system will then track into the northern Rockies Sunday night leading to more areas of mountain snow.  The snow will then expand farther east into the northern Plains as the storm center moves into the northern High Plains by Monday morning. Kong   ------------------------------------------------- Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 128 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 25 2020 - 12Z Sat Feb 29 2020 Dynamic storm system to bring active few days to the eastern half of the CONUS next week... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The synoptic pattern through the medium range period (Tues Feb 25 - Sat Feb 29) is expected to generally favor western U.S. ridging and central/eastern U.S. troughing. Overall, model agreement was average to above average, with reasonable consensus on the developing storm system poised to affect the central/eastern U.S. next week. Initially, the 06Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC were well clustered on day 3/4 and were primarily used for the model blend preference. Northern/southern stream interaction late Wednesday into Thu is expected to lead to strong cyclogenesis over the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast as has been seen for several runs and remains constant in the last several ensemble runs. By the end of the week, uncertainty increases along/off the West Coast where a digging trough near 140W early Fri may either close off west of 130W (Canadian) or simply continue eastward (GFS/ECMWF). Ensembles favor the most progressive GFS/ECMWF approach with less trends toward a closed low forming off the western US. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Some modest to locally heavy rain is expected across the Southeast (Fl/GA border) as the front moves through on Tue-Wed. Precipitation on the northwest side of the organizing fronts will support a swath of snow from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes/Midwest. Once the system starts to deepen over the Mid-Atlantic, snow will expand across much of New York away from the coast and through northern New England. Temperatures will trend cooler with time as the system moves through, with the coldest readings (10-20 deg below average) progressing to the Appalachians and even down into Florida by Friday. By contrast, the West will see generally dry conditions next week. Temperatures about 10-20 deg above average (and even some record highs) can be expected. Light rain/snow will be confined to the coastal areas of WA/OR. Fracasso/Taylor Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
    • Well, I'm back! 🙂  Yes. some cold and some potential for winter weather. I was just looking at the models and I'll have an update here shortly.
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