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  • Current view of the Great Smoky Mountains from the Look Rock webcam

    Welcome to the new North Georgia WX weather discussion site!

    This site is part of a family of websites and social media sites that will become an integrated source of weather information. I will eventually take the best from all my sites and bring them all together here. I'm still in the process of consolidating information as well as continuing to find better ways of communicating weather information.

    I make a post every morning in the "Daily Weather Post" section of the forums where I bring you the daily weather information, and look ahead at potential changes, as well as other interesting weather information. There are several pages of weather information including Area Forecast Discussions, and charts and maps under the menu item "Weather Data".

    I also post the Weather Prediction Center's "Extended Forecast Discussion" every morning in the Weather Discussion forum, and from there you'll gain additional insight into the weather over the next 3-7 days.

    There is a pinned post in the Weather Discussion forum for you to provide feedback to let me know what I'm doing right as well as what I'm doing wrong. When you sign up, you become part of the "Member" group which has certain elevated rights/restrictions that allow you to post images etc, but more importantly, you can selectively follow any forum or post and get automatic updates.

    I hope you enjoy the site!


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    • Various IR views of the diving shortwave - Images and loops for this sector can be found here: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sat_central_plains.php IR View of Shortwave.mp4  
    • Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 302 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 20 2020 - 12Z Wed Jan 22 2020 Temperatures will be 10 to 35 degrees below average over the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Plains into the Southeast Rain and higher elevation snow from Northern California/Pacific Northwest to the Rockies Lake effect snow will begin to wind down by Monday afternoon downwind from the Great Lakes.  A cold dome of high pressure over the Northern Plains will move southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday.  Temperatures associated with the high will be 10 to 35 degrees below average over the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Plains into the Southeast that will begin to modify on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Weak moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing rain and higher level snow from Northern California/Pacific Northwest to the Rockies though Wednesday.  On Tuesday, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley as energy from the West Coast moves eastward to the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.  Rain will develop over parts of the Southern High Plains on Tuesday afternoon into evening that will move into the Central Plains overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  Areas of rain/freezing rain may develop over parts of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, likewise, overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.      Ziegenfelder ------------------------------------------------ Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jan 23 2020 - 12Z Mon Jan 27 2020 ...Overview... A system in the Southern Plains Thursday will spread modest to perhaps locally heavy rainfall from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward next through Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, several frontal systems will bring periods of wet weather to much of Washington/Oregon to start then into northern California by the weekend. Overall, milder temperatures will prevail over most of the CONUS during the period. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Consensus of the 12Z (18Z) GFS/ECMWF/Canadian forged a good starting point for most of the forecast period as the 12Z UKMET was again quite different aloft with the evolution of the forming upper low over the central Plains/mid-Mississippi Valley. Models have gravitated toward a similar idea of the lead sfc low lifting out of the ArkLaTex to the Ohio Valley Thu-Fri as its triple point low takes over by Sat in the Carolinas. That entity will lift northeastward toward the NY Bight or 40/70 Benchmark by early Sunday, when spread in the guidance increases forthwith. Generally the GFS/Canadian and most GEFS members were quicker than the ECMWF ensemble members with the 12Z ECMWF on the slower side. Favored a solution between the ensemble camps for now given the conflicting signals of a slower trend overall but still a progressive enough upper pattern. Off the West Coast, with continued timing differences in the guidance with successive systems, a consensus approach was prudent there as well. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Above average temperatures are favored nearly CONUS-wide through the period. Highest anomalies (10-25F above average) will lie astride the Canadian border with near to slightly above average temperatures (around 5F anomalies) near the Gulf Coast. Daytime highs may stay below average where the rain associated with the southern system is most prevalent. Precipitation will be non-continuous but quite repetitive in the Northwest as several systems push through. The generally mild flow will keep snow levels a bit higher, too. Farther east, rainfall will expand out of Texas to points eastward/northeastward as the system organizes across the lower Mississippi Valley. Gulf inflow will help realize modest rainfall totals along the NW and central Gulf coast that could be locally heavy. Atlantic inflow could maintain at least some modest rainfall amounts across the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The system will likely have some wintry weather on its northern side from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast but with uncertain amounts and a marginal thermal environment. Fracasso Links WPC Excessive Rain Discussion WPC Short Range Discussion WPC Extended Range Discussion WPC Model Diagnostic Discussion WPC 500 MB Preferred Heights WPC 500 MB Height Trends WPC 7 Day Max Temp - Anomaly WPC 7 Day Min Temp - Anomaly WPC Significant Lows with Tracks WPC SLP Trends
    • Good morning! Do you have a little bit of cold air this morning? 🙂 I'm up early today! And yes, it is COLD outside, and here is what it looks like at 4:14 am.    it's going to be a pretty cold day, even for this time of the year. The NWS has this for high temperatures today.   And these are anomalies around 2 PM   There will be a very strong 500 mb shortwave diving down from the northern US today.    In this water vapor loop, you can see the wave diving down this morning. Shortwave.mp4   Here's a look at the 500 mb vorticity, that's a pretty strong wave.   Ther relative humidity maps shows some moisture, but wringing that out and getting it to the surface will be difficult. Dew point depressions show the dry air that will be in place.    Another missed opportunity. And so it goes with winter in Georgia. 🙂  I hope everyone has a great day! I know many people are off including the kids, hope everyone stays warm!
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