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Jay

Educator
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About Jay

  1. Jay

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    I might not lose sleep, but I pretty much wear myself out researching, reading and trying to see what is going to happen as soon as I can..... pretty much like it was when I was a kid in the 80's in Tampa. The St. Petersburg Times used to publish maps of the Gulf of Mexico in the newspaper each time a storm came into the gulf and my friends and I would spend days pretending to be meteorologists and tracking the storm on a newsprint map.
  2. Jay

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Yuppers.... Thankfully it's only one set, and they are portable if absolutely necessary. More than likely they are getting a hard plastic heating pad installed in their den box this week. On the flip side, need to get some propane for the grill. No generator, but we at least have a gas fireplace hooked up to a 1K propane tank. As an aside, being a biologist/educator, it's cool to see the number teachers on this forum!
  3. Jay

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    LOL! Excited and slightly concerned regarding temps...... and eventually temps and the possibility about being unable to be on the road. Got outside animals at the environmental education I work at that may need some contingency planning if things get anywhere near what the models are tossing around. 😎 Not stressing, just thinking ahead.... perhaps with fingers crossed that we get some snow days off in Rome.
  4. Jay

    Winter Weather Potential - January 20-27

    Baby step.... baby steps..... with the hope that the baby falls off the step and tumbles all the way down into the cold white stuff.
  5. Jay

    2018-2019 Winter Discussion

    And from the boys and girls over in Peachtree: 000 FXUS62 KFFC 132323 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 620 PM EST Sun Jan 13 2019 .SHORT TERM /Today through Monday Night/... A weak surface boundary is working its way into the region and as it does, winds will gradually all switch to out of the west and help mix out the low level moisture enough to erode the fog and very low clouds. Aloft the region is under a slight northwest flow in the wake of the exiting upper level trof. There are still some weak impulses moving through the flow which combined with plenty of low level moisture in place will result in clouds only slowly eroding through the short term. Model soundings overnight suggest a lowering of the clouds again by early Monday and there could be some patchy fog overnight...however winds are expected to be up enough to keep it more on the patchy side. Temperatures were scaled back a bit today as a result of the low clouds and fog hanging in a tad longer. But, temps are forecast to be near normal on Monday as a weak high pressure system finally works in and clears things out for the rest of the week KS .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... Through Wed night, high pressure will gradually progress east but remain in control of the local weather pattern. Dry conditions with a moderating trend expected during this time period with temps recovery to mid 50s north and around 60 south for Wed afternoon. Zonal flow aloft will allow for rapid progression of next system Thu into Thu night. This one looks to be all liquid with no significant cold air intrusions at this point. Going likely pops for now as there has been some inconsistencies from run to run among the models. Next significant system will be for the weekend with models going back and forth as to how much post frontal precip will be available as much colder air rushes in. Have confined a rain/snow mix to the higher elevations for now but will need to monitor for potential for this to spread further south on the west side of the state in subsequent model runs. Remainder of the extended already in place looked good and only limited changes planned.
  6. Jay

    2018-2019 Winter Discussion

    You know it's time to start getting excited about the cold when Mr. James Spann starts mentioning it on FB : Off of his FB, about 25 min ago: "MAJOR COLD SNAP A WEEK AWAY: Confidence continues to grow in the idea of the coldest air so far this season invading the Deep South in one week. Temperatures will likely climb into the 60s Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday with occasional showers. An Arctic front moves through Saturday night, and on Sunday some North Alabama communities could say below freezing all day, with lows in the teens by Monday morning. *For now we are not expecting severe storms with the frontal passage. *As the colder air rushes into the state Sunday, snow flurries are possible, but for now it doesn't look like there will be significant impact. *Temperatures will likely remain below average for most of the following week (January 21-25). This "Arctic blast" is one week away, and confidence in the specific forecast will be much higher as we get closer to the weekend. FYI, the coldest temperature measured at Birmingham so far this season is 23, on November 28."
  7. Jay

    Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

    Conceptually, I can see the CAD stretching out through WNW GA. It's happened in the past and, as depicted, pretty much follows the regional geography. What I am having difficulty with is the cold rain that runs from NE AL into TN and is bounded north and south by freezing rain. I want to say when those of us in NW GA get kissed by the CAD we're typically on the southern end of things and NE AL and S TN are getting frozen or freezing stuff as well. Maybe it speaks to how marginal things are?
  8. Jay

    Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

    Steve, you have any thoughts about the FV3 as a model in general?
  9. Jay

    Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

    Fingers crossed on this!!
  10. Jay

    Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

    S'all good. YMMV, but it seems to me that Peachtree is generally cautious about their verbiage until fairly close in to the event unless there is overwhelming evidence that forces their hand. Believe me, I'm right there with you! It feels like I am in a funky weird area in extreme WNW-ish Ga that the CAD seems to regularly reach out and touch in events like this, but for whatever reason doesn't show up in modeling. Truth be told, I like how the FV3 was looking in terms of geographical coverage, even though it was way overdone in terms of amounts.
  11. Jay

    Potential Winter Threat - December 6-11

    It may be wish-casting, but for some reason I having this feeling that folks across the northern tier of GA might have a minor surprise come Monday morning with ZA and a little white stuff.
  12. Jay

    November Weather Discussion

    No doubt. I think this year has the potential to be epic. I want to say that I'm just anxious for the season to get started in the deep south....but it already has started with this little bit of fun, just not in our area.
  13. Jay

    November Weather Discussion

    Shame we're kinda sorta in the warm nose for this......
  14. Jay

    Suggestions and Issues

    Hey Steve! You asked for some feedback this morning regarding where the link you posted to the AFD took people on your sight. I'll be honest I am not sure what happened when I clicked on that link. I was using an iphone and it opened your site to the AFD however, two seconds after the page opened it started randomly scrolling... just wanted to give a FYI.
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