Jump to content

KingOfTheMountains

Moderator
  • Content Count

    944
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 6 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    Thank you, do you think there will be a Tornado?

    No. More of our garden variety strong thunderstorm just with very intense lighting. 


  2. 23 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    I am starting to get super nervous... any words of advice or help?

    Just try to stay calm. This is just going to be a typical strong/severe storm. There will be a lot of lightning and thunder for a while and possibly some strong winds and hail. But the worst will pass by fairly quickly. 


  3. 1 hour ago, audpogue said:

    Hey, don't mean to bother ya, but  what's the deal with a Special Weather Statement? I never understood why they issue those and not just warnings? We aren't even in a watch, but these storms about to slam into me keep getting these special statements issued. What's the criteria for this? And I only see these on your FB page. These won't trigger any kind of warnings over our devices will they?

    Thanks!

    They issue a special weather statement for any hazards that don't quite reach advisory/warning criteria. For instance a strong thunderstorm that is hazardous but doesn't have qtr. size hail or 60+ mph winds. 

    • Like 1

  4. tclbhm_supercell.thumb.png.34935ae191f87e13f3a8d27e654d9ba8.png

    That same supercell that produced the Tuscaloosa tornado is the same one that produced a high end ef-3 here in Rabun later that night. Luckily it only killed 1, but if it had been just a month later it would have been a disaster. The area of the worst damage was mostly summer/vacation homes, so at the time they were vacant. It was the first debris ball ever recorded on the GSP radar. GSP has a great study on that tornado as well as the whole event here: https://www.weather.gov/gsp/EpicOutbreak


  5. 21 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Have you heard of any damage from it?

    Other than from hail no. I suspect if anything did touch down in the county it was way out in the wilderness, and we certainly have plenty of it. 

    • Like 1

  6. I will say the storms yesterday were amazing to look at. We don't get such perfectly structured supercells in this area very often. We usually get very messy high precipitation ones, but each and every one that rolled through yesterday was a perfectly ventilated "mother ship" type storm like you see on the plains. If it weren't for the hook echo tracking right for me I probably would've tried to get up high and get some good shots of that last one. 

    • Like 1

  7. Well that was one of the bigger scares I've had in a while. Tracking a rotation couplet heading right towards you is really nerve wracking. All is good though. Spotted a wall cloud and a potential funnel as it approached Tiger but it was well off the ground. 

    • Like 2

  8. Reading through this portion of the GSP forecast discussion and I suppose for now the threat up in this area is down to whether or not the NAM stays an outlier. 

    ... rain is expected to
    shift east by late aftn/early evening, with the warm front lifting
    north across central GA and SC. the question is how far north will
    the front get before the occluded front passes by Thu evening. The
    NAM is an outlier with a faster surge north and bringing the warm
    sector of the system into the entire area by 00z Fri. Within this
    warm sector, 1000-2000+ j/kg of sbCAPE and bulk shear of 70 kts or
    more (with curved hodographs of various soundings). Even the GFS and
    ECMWF do hint that the warm sector will creep into at least the
    southern fringes of the forecast area, and so the Day 3 slight risk
    for severe weather looks well placed. A threat of supercells with
    possibly some violent tornadoes will be possible, if the NAM is
    right. 

  9. Very powerful tornado just passed near Thomaston, GA. Just as powerful as those in Mississippi earlier today. I got 138mph away and 80mph towards on rardarscope which is very intense. Big debris ball as well. Praying very hard for folks in those areas. Just a pit in my stomach right now watching that debris ball just keep trucking. I hate these night time tornados like this... 

    • Like 1
    • Sad 3

  10. So in the last day or so all the models that looked the worst were able to clear out this moderate rain ahead of the main line. Unless I'm reading too much into it, that doesn't appear to be happening. If so that should greatly reduce chances for the stronger tornados. Spin ups on the line and straight line winds would still be very serious threats, but it's somewhat of a silver lining at least. 

    • Like 1

  11. 15 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    I am still praying, I am getting terrified. I know there is still a 90% chance there won't be a tornado at my home, but I still worry. Any suggestions to calm down?

    It's actually even a little better than that. It's a 90% chance of there not being a tornado within 25 miles of your house. 

    • Like 1

  12. 11 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    Will they go off the charts today?...

    They are in Alabama and Mississippi but for now they are below 10 here in GA, but still very high significant numbers. Anything over a 1 or a 2 bears watching and we are seeing 8+ as the main event crosses late overnight. 

    • Like 1

  13. 2 minutes ago, RickyD said:

    Glenn Burns just said on Facebook that parameters In Ga are now like 2011. I was under the impression that was not so?  

     

     

    It's not. Glenn likes to be dramatic. It is still very bad and in the territory of many of our historic outbreaks but STPs were literally way off the charts by that afternoon. 

    • Like 1

  14. 42 minutes ago, HiTekRedNek said:

    This isnt related to this topic but anybody know what is causing this on rardarscope on reflectivity? At first i thought it was clutter but it appears on every other radar site nearby.

    Screenshot_20200411-213246.png

    Technical term is a type of anomalous propagation of the radar beam. But to most it's just called a radar bloom, happens almost nightly to various extents. 

    Here's a short article on them. https://medium.com/weather-wisdom/radar-beams-refraction-inversions-and-ground-clutter-4b7dec0df821

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  15. Bust potential is definitely still there, always is, but it's highly unlikely. I think figuring out the main mode of storms in our area is going to be very tricky. Could be anything from discrete super cells to linear QLCS, or even a bit of both. 

    This video from James Spann is really great. A little Alabama-centric of course but there is a lot of great info and advice in there that everyone could use. 

     

     


  16. 1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    These are the top analogs and I highlighted a few with a significant impact on Georgia.

    Snap346064682.thumb.png.815110a9c8fabf1a22adc2a1f36d78e7.png

    Just seeing 04/27/2011 among the top analogs is chilling. Sat and watched out my window as a tornado went over the top of Germany mountain that night. Having at least a few analogs where the parameters weren't really realized is nice though. Just like with a snow storm, there are tons of unforseen ways that a modeled event can fizzle on the day of even when it looks perfect, so I've got my fingers crossed for that outcome. 

    • Like 1

  17. We definitely looked wedged in right now which is hopefully our saving grace. But if long track super cells are established to our west I worry about their tendency to track well into less favorable conditions before starting to succumb to them. 

    • Like 2

  18.  

    I suppose the SPC is banking on the morning activity plus a weak wedge stabilizing our region? The wedge looks like it erodes pretty fast to me so it's all up to the light to moderate rain/storms along the warm front to stick around and keep our cap on for the most part. 

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...