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This is an automated feed from the Storm Prediction Center that post the following products with images:
- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given gene…
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper shortwave troughs will impact the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through the Day 4-8 period. This will result in reinforcing continental/offshore trajectories, and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will prevail for most of the forecast period, limiting thunderstorm potential. Further west, an upper trough will move onshore the Pacific coast around Days 5-6/Fri-Sat. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough are expected, though severe-storm potential will be low given gene…
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunde…
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunde…
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunde…
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone and attendant trough will continue to meander eastward across the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low near/just offshore from the NC Outer Banks will track northeast offshore from the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Given the forecast track of this low pressure system, any better-quality warm sector is expected to remain offshore. Nevertheless, isolated thunde…
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 25 07:46:02 UTC 2023.View the full article
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be q…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sec…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sec…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sec…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the middle of the CONUS will rotate eastward toward the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak low over GA Tuesday morning will slowly develop eastward toward the SC coast through early evening. A warm front will be draped across the Midlands of SC toward the far southern NC coast, while a cold front shifts east across the Southeast. A narrow, modest warm sec…
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relati…
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves nor…
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves nor…
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves nor…
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this morning will weaken as it moves nor…
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MD 2344 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST Mesoscale Discussion 2344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250551Z - 250745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with the most robust convection early this morning. DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt upper trough is advancing northeast across the lower MS Delta region this evening. An extensive region of convection continues ahead of this feature extending from the northern Gulf Basin, northwest acr…
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A localized severe thunderstorm risk is possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Synopsis... Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough pivoting northeast across the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf Coast. An extensive rain shield is located immediately ahead of the trough over the central Gulf Coast/lower MS Valley. Although the pri…
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. On D3/Tue, a belt of strong west-northwesterly flow trailing an expansive midlevel cyclone over the central CONUS will overspread the southern High Plains, where a warming/drying post-frontal air mass will be in place. This will favor dry/breezy conditions over portions of southeast NM into West TX; however, recent rainfall atop already marginal fuels should limit most fire-weather concerns here. On D4/Wed…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points a…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points a…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points a…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will …
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will …
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