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- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across most of the CONUS on Tuesday. One possible exception will be across parts of eastern NM and west TX, where a modest increase in midlevel moisture is expected in advance of a developing mid/upper-level low over the Southwest. The increasing moisture will support the development of weak elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE of 100-300…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thund…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thund…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thund…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will continue east-northeastward across the Northeast through the period, while a related cold front over the Gulf Stream advances further east into the Atlantic Ocean. Thunderstorms are confined to the cold front where sufficient buoyancy is present and will remain well offshore. Cool/stable post-frontal conditions will limit thund…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast to…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest observations across southern CA/lower CO River Valley and the southern Plains show dry conditions, but generally weak winds. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show low potential for strong winds and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 12/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast to…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 11 14:01:01 UTC 2023.View the full article
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hou…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hou…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hou…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hou…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, cyclonic flow will remain over the East, but will lose amplitude in response to two processes: 1. The eastward ejection of a substantial trough now over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. The associated low-level cold front is in the process of clearing the New England Coast, with the surface-based buoyancy well south of the area, and another couple hou…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8 continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward progression of an …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8 continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward progression of an …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8 continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward progression of an …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe probabilities appear negligible through D5. An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential during D6-8 continues across the eastern Gulf to south Atlantic Coasts. An initially stout surface anticyclone will weaken heading into the weekend over the OH Valley to central Appalachians. A remnant continental polar airmass will largely remain entrenched across the Southeast outside of the FL Peninsula. Deterministic 00Z guidance has trended towards increasing agreement with slow eastward progression of an …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Southwest... A mid-level low over the Lower CO Valley should pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Scant to meager elevated buoyancy will become increasingly pervasive downstream of this low. Sporadic lightning flashes should be favored in the first half of the period within a modest but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into t…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Southwest... A mid-level low over the Lower CO Valley should pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Scant to meager elevated buoyancy will become increasingly pervasive downstream of this low. Sporadic lightning flashes should be favored in the first half of the period within a modest but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into t…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Southwest... A mid-level low over the Lower CO Valley should pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Scant to meager elevated buoyancy will become increasingly pervasive downstream of this low. Sporadic lightning flashes should be favored in the first half of the period within a modest but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into t…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Southwest... A mid-level low over the Lower CO Valley should pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Scant to meager elevated buoyancy will become increasingly pervasive downstream of this low. Sporadic lightning flashes should be favored in the first half of the period within a modest but persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into t…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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MD 2330 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND Mesoscale Discussion 2330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Areas affected...Portions of New York into northern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 110806Z - 111400Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with rates up to around 0.75 to 1 inch per hour, should persist across parts of New York into New England this morning. DISCUSSION...A pronounced upper trough will continue to progress east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this morning. A surface low near southern New England will consolidate and deepen further over the nex…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRF…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRF…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal incr…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX,
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