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- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle i…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1229 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A secondary wave of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the western US trough, resulting in deepening of the wave and a deepening surface cyclone progged to move eastward into the Central Plains. Further west, hot and deeply mixed profiles will allow for strong surface west to southwest flow aloft to reach the surface across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle i…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 0111 PM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1110 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO AR AND SOUTHERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas and southwest Missouri. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained wind…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 12/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained wind…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
- 104 views
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
- 71 views
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1012 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Grea…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Grea…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Grea…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Grea…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward a progressive, high-amplitude western CONUS trough through the period, as associated increasingly cyclonic flow is traversed by a series of shortwaves. Accompanying cold midlevel air (-20 to -34 deg C) 500-mb temperatures will spread eastward/inland across a vast section of the northwestern CONUS through the period, from the northern Grea…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 1 follower
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4... Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These trends lower confidence…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley, mainly on Saturday afternoon into the early evening. ...Synopsis... The broader synoptic trends noted in D2 persist into D3 with a leading shortwave impulse and attendant cyclogenetic surface low rapidly progressing across the central Great Lakes towards James Bay. The trailing cold front from the Midwest to east TX w…
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