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This is an automated feed from the Storm Prediction Center that post the following products with images:
- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
- Mesoscale Discussions - MD number, images, and link to page
- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, phasing of northern and southern streams over the western CONUS will result in a full-latitude trough by the end of the period, from east-central MT southward over the central/ southern Rockies to eastern Chihuahua. This will occur as a weakening cyclone -- no…
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, phasing of northern and southern streams over the western CONUS will result in a full-latitude trough by the end of the period, from east-central MT southward over the central/ southern Rockies to eastern Chihuahua. This will occur as a weakening cyclone -- no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, phasing of northern and southern streams over the western CONUS will result in a full-latitude trough by the end of the period, from east-central MT southward over the central/ southern Rockies to eastern Chihuahua. This will occur as a weakening cyclone -- no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, phasing of northern and southern streams over the western CONUS will result in a full-latitude trough by the end of the period, from east-central MT southward over the central/ southern Rockies to eastern Chihuahua. This will occur as a weakening cyclone -- no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-thunderstorm potential will be low during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low will migrate across the Midwest/Great Lakes region while several shortwave troughs maintain general upper troughing across the eastern U.S. for most of the period. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will move across the western states before an upper trough approaches the Pacific coast toward Day 8/Sat. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by late Day 5/Wed. Surface high pressure building over t…
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-thunderstorm potential will be low during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low will migrate across the Midwest/Great Lakes region while several shortwave troughs maintain general upper troughing across the eastern U.S. for most of the period. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will move across the western states before an upper trough approaches the Pacific coast toward Day 8/Sat. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by late Day 5/Wed. Surface high pressure building over t…
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-thunderstorm potential will be low during the Day 4-8 period. An upper low will migrate across the Midwest/Great Lakes region while several shortwave troughs maintain general upper troughing across the eastern U.S. for most of the period. At the same time, an amplified upper ridge will move across the western states before an upper trough approaches the Pacific coast toward Day 8/Sat. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by late Day 5/Wed. Surface high pressure building over t…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low over the central Plains will deepen as it drifts east toward the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, and a stronger sub-tropical jet moving across the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain a stream of rich mid-level moisture over the southeastern U.S. At the surface, low pressure over the Mid-MS Valley will lift north toward the Upper Midwest while a…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A lee cyclone will develop in the central Plains today as a mid-level trough translates across the western CONUS and amplifies. This will bring some windy conditions to portions of the Southwest and the Southern and Central High Plains. However, this system will bring significant Pacific moisture and advect Gulf moisture northward as low-level flow strengthens. Therefore, relative humidity will remain quite high. In addition, fuels will be moist across the region with add…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK so…
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A shortwave upper trough will pivot east on Sunday from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK/KS at the beginning of the period will weaken with time, becoming elongated from the Ozarks to LA by late afternoon into the evening. A line and/or cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from central/eastern OK so…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A large-scale mid- to upper-level trough will move east from the Great Basin/Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the period. A lead mid-level speed max will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and overspread the south…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A large-scale mid- to upper-level trough will move east from the Great Basin/Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the period. A lead mid-level speed max will move through the base of the larger-scale trough and overspread the south…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible tonight across southern Arizona. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over the California/Mexico border and it will move east along the Arizona/Sonora border by early Saturday morning. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-22 deg C at 500 mb) were observed this evening on the 00z San Diego raob. These cool temperatures aloft are contributing to weak buoyan…
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible tonight across southern Arizona. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level low over the California/Mexico border and it will move east along the Arizona/Sonora border by early Saturday morning. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-22 deg C at 500 mb) were observed this evening on the 00z San Diego raob. These cool temperatures aloft are contributing to weak buoyan…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 22 22:31:02 UTC 2023.View the full article
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the south…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions appears low through the extended forecast period. A highly amplified midlevel trough will evolve into an expansive closed low over the central CONUS during the first half of the extended period. At the same time, a related frontal system will track eastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley before occluding over the Midwest. On the backside of this system, periods of locally dry and breezy conditions are possible across portions of the south…
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MD 2339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST AZ AND FAR SOUTHEAST CA Mesoscale Discussion 2339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Areas affected...Southwest AZ and far southeast CA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222031Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Small to marginally severe hail will be possible in the more robust storms this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A trio of convective swaths persist downstream of a slow-moving mid/upper low just offshore of the CA/Baja CA border. The intermediate of these three…
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated hail and gusty winds remain possible this afternoon and evening across parts of southern Arizona and vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk. The potential for isolated hail and gusty winds continues with any robust convection that can move from northwest Mexico into southern AZ this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason.. 12/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION…
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