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This is an automated feed from the Storm Prediction Center that post the following products with images:
- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
- Mesoscale Discussions - MD number, images, and link to page
- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
8,416 topics in this forum
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted s…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through daybreak Wednesday. ...20Z Update... Forecast soundings suggest that moistening supportive of very weak CAPE across the Texas South Plains vicinity tonight will be largely rooted near or above 700 mb. The extent of any potential for warm advection driven convection to produce lightning remains unclear. However, the categorical thunderstorm line (10 percent probability) has been adjusted s…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with minimal fire weather potential expected over most of the CONUS for Wednesday. Details in the previous discussion (below) outlining concerns for southern California remain valid based on recent observations and trends in recent guidance. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave o…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with minimal fire weather potential expected over most of the CONUS for Wednesday. Details in the previous discussion (below) outlining concerns for southern California remain valid based on recent observations and trends in recent guidance. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave o…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Oh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Oh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Oh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Synopsis... Cool, generally dry and stable air prevails, particularly under the influence of expansive surface ridging across the northern U.S. Intermountain West through most areas east of the Rockies. An increasingly prominent embedded center of higher pressure within this regime is forecast to gradually shift across the middle Mississippi through lower Oh…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated conve…
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated conve…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated conve…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... No changes to the ongoing outlook are needed with the 1630z update. Moistening midlevels and steepening lapse rates ahead of the western U.S. upper trough will foster modest elevated instability overnight across eastern NM/west TX. Increasing ascent in a continued warm advection regime may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes in elevated conve…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level win…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with limited fire weather potential. Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain possible along the southern CA coast later tonight, but latest guidance continues to suggest low potential for widespread concerns due to marginal RH reductions. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level win…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday. Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700 mb level. Midlevel …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this wee…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this wee…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... An area-of-interest for increasing severe potential exists during D5-7 over the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic States. Confidence is too low to warrant a 15 percent severe probability highlight for a specific day and area. 00Z deterministic guidance trends have been to indicate phasing of the southern-stream shortwave trough with a northern-stream Alberta Clipper, across the central to eastern states. This evolution may support strong cyclogenesis over the eastern Gulf to on/off the South Atlantic Coast this wee…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
- 0 replies
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX,
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