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- Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches - Watch number and the link to the watch page and watch status page if issued.
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- Convective Outlooks - Day 1, 2, 3, and 4-8
- Fire Weather Outlooks - 1,2, and 3-8
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GULF COAST...TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND DELTA REGIONS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts, and isolated severe hail are possible today and tonight from portions of the Ohio Valley southward to the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted synoptic trough will amplify and proceed eastward across the central CONUS, predominantly in response to two accompanying shortwave troughs: 1. A no…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing across the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the southern Appalachians vicinity on D3 into D4, and remaining anchored in this region through at least D7. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification. Next weekend, deterministic 00Z E…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible for several days in the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing across the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic Seaboard. Above-average agreement exists with the establishment of a surface anticyclone over the southern Appalachians vicinity on D3 into D4, and remaining anchored in this region through at least D7. This will yield predominant easterly surface winds over the Gulf and FL Peninsula, with gradual airmass modification. Next weekend, deterministic 00Z E…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent on Monday. ...Discussion... Substantial cyclogenesis late D2 should persist into early D3 with the surface low tracking near the New England coast to the Canadian Maritimes. An extremely strong low-level jet ahead of the cyclone, increasing to around 100 kts at 850 mb, may advect sufficient western Atlantic moisture to yield minimal elevated buoyancy. Both 00Z NAM and ECMWF forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE may…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as a basal shortwave impulse rapidly ejects across the Deep South to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. Int…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An amplified, positive-tilt upper trough from ON to east TX at 12Z Sunday will take on a neutral to slight negative tilt as a basal shortwave impulse rapidly ejects across the Deep South to the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. Int…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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- 157 views
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail, will be possible from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valley and in the central Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail, will be possible from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms could also develop in parts of the Ohio Valley and in the central Gulf Coast region. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will amplify as it moves into the Southeast today. This will push a cold front through the Plains to near the Appalachians. Surface high pressure will increase within the Great Basin and Four Corners regions. ...Southern California... Offshore winds will likely be maximized early this morning. Winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) will overlap with at least marginally reduced RH. RH values will fall to near 10-15% in some locations by the afternoon. Winds will slowly lose …
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 9 05:31:01 UTC 2023.View the full article
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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MD 2303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0925 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Areas affected...western Arkansas...far southeast Oklahoma...far northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090325Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Hail may be noted with the strongest convection this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Pronounced surface front is advancing across eastern OK/northwest AR this evening. This boundary will continue su…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated large-hail threat will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. A marginal tornado threat could also develop in parts of central and northern Arkansas. ...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough over the central Plains and southern Rockies. Mid-level moisture was evident near and to the east of the trough from Colorado into weste…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire we…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z The potential for fire weather concerns appears limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance shows fairly good agreement in the synoptic evolution beyond this weekend and into next week. A stout surface high will become established east of the Rockies in the wake of this weekend's upper trough (currently deepening over the Southwest/Southern Plains) and attendant surface low/cold frontal passage. This should favor cool and quiescent conditions across much of the country with low fire we…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this e…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this e…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX, -
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Uncertainty remains regarding storm coverage this evening/tonight from the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks, but a conditional supercell threat remains evident. See the previous discussion below for more details. A cluster of elevated storms may develop later this e…
Last reply by NorthGeorgiaWX,
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