There is definitely a warmer signal, but location will be more important. As long as the heat stays centered in the Pacific, we should be fine.
I have a post on the other blog site that my friend Larry compiled. He took a look a look at 26 cold winters here and went back and matched the ENSO state up with them. Here's his analysis of the 26 cold winters by ENSO state:
Strong Nino: 0 of 26 (0%)
Moderate Nino: 1 of 26 (4%)
Weak Nino: 9 of 26 (35%)
Neutral positive: 4 of 26 (15%)
Neutral negative: 5 of 26 (19%)
Weak Nina: 6 of 26 (23%)
Moderate Nina: 1 of 26 (4%)
Strong Nina: 0 of 26 (0%)
Here's some additional comments from the blog post:
"Notice that out of all the cold years, the majority of them occurred during weak Nino's (35%). Also notice that out of all of those cold winters, none of them occurred with a strong Nino or a strong Nina.
The map (see attached image) on the left depicts the temperature anomalies that occurred during a Weak Nino. Due to the data only going back to 1948, all of the years are not depicted, but this will give you a good idea.
As you can see, a weak Nino is what we'd like to see come Dec-Feb. If the current one stays too strong, it could severely limit our cold this winter based on past analogs. keep in mind, Larry's study is based on temperatures, not precipitation. "
Here's the link to the blog post: http://blog.northgeorgiawx.com/weather-blog/a-look-at-the-effects-of-ninos-on-southeast-winters
I think I'll share it here on a blog post.
Glad I finally got signed up! Great info! I’m starting to hear that this El Niño May be heading to the moderate to strong levels, instead of the weak/mod level. How do you see this affecting the winter outlooks?