Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States on D4...
Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues an overall
trend for more muted cyclogenesis in the CONUS downstream of an
amplified upper trough ejecting from the MS Valley towards the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on D4. While low-level southerlies
will strengthen ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, the more
prominent intensification appears to be largely occurring
near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard later in the period. These
trends lower confidence in sustaining greater than low-probability
wind/tornado threats during the day to evening on Sunday amid a
thermodynamically limited warm sector. At least low severe
probabilities will likely be highlighted in the next outlook cycle;
centered on parts of GA, the Carolinas, and southeast VA where low
to mid 60s surface dew points overlapping 850-mb winds in excess of
40 kts are still indicated.
...D5-8...
Severe potential appears likely to be negligible for several days in
the wake of this weekend's cold front progressing through much of
the Gulf.
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