Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 15, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 15, 2023 MD 2269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS Mesoscale Discussion 2269 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 151751Z - 152015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support 500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon. Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 24518228 24678194 25028114 25218054 25158027 24908019 24588039 24378086 24348145 24358194 24518228 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheJohnnyDee Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 It is a start! NorthGeorgiaWX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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