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SPC MD 2269


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MD 2269 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
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Mesoscale Discussion 2269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151751Z - 152015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado/waterspout is possible over the Florida
Keys over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over
the past few hours around the FL Keys, some of which have shown
occasional instances of transient low-level rotation. Mid-level
lapse rates remain poor over the region. However, the combination of
surface heating amid mid 70s F surface dewpoints should support
500-1000 J/kg of tall and thin SBCAPE through the afternoon.
Coinciding the buoyancy axis should be increasing 850 mb flow, which
would support modestly curved low-level hodographs. As such, the
stronger, more persistent thunderstorms should continue to exhibit
at least brief periods of low-level rotation and a tornado (or
tornadic waterspout) remains possible around the FL Keys through the
afternoon hours. The tornado threat however is quite sparse, so a
Tornado Watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 11/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24518228 24678194 25028114 25218054 25158027 24908019
            24588039 24378086 24348145 24358194 24518228 

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