Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted October 26, 2023 Administrators Share Posted October 26, 2023 MD 2263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY/CENTRAL TX Mesoscale Discussion 2263 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 AM CDT Thu Oct 26 2023 Areas affected...TX Hill Country/Central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261337Z - 261530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes exists across central TX/TX Hill Country for the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations reveal a very moist air mass in place across the TX Hill Country into central TX, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This moisture is fostering modest buoyancy, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. A good portion of this buoyancy is confined to the low levels, as evidenced by 0-3 km MLCAPE around 100 J/kg across much of the area. Robust low-level shear is also in place, with recent VAD profiles from EWX sampling over 20 kt of 0-1 km shear and near 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. This combination of low-level buoyancy and shear could result in brief tornadoes, despite relatively small updrafts and limited storm depth. Low to mid-level flow across this area is expected to weaken throughout the day, with the stronger flow translating northeastward with time. This should limit the duration of the tornado potential, and suggests the low-probability tornado threat is likely maximizing currently. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 10/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28699867 29279887 29629875 30009845 30539755 30929696 30609628 29059710 28579798 28699867 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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