SPC MD 2272

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2272 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND SOUTHWEST AR

Mesoscale Discussion 2272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Areas affected...portions of north TX...southeast OK...and southwest
AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 201311Z - 201515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail around a half inch to near one inch in
diameter is possible the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A deepening field of altocumulus is evident in IR
imagery this morning across north TX. Based on 12z FWD RAOB, these
clouds are likely rooted around 600 mb. This indicates increasing
ascent associated with the approaching upper trough is spreading
east, and aiding in modest growth over the past hour. Regional 12z
RAOBs still indicate quite a bit of low-level inhibition, with
layers of dry air above shallow boundary-layer moisture. Moistening
and heating through mid to late morning will continue to improve the
thermodynamic environment, while large-scale ascent erodes capping.
In the short term, steepening midlevel lapse rates and favorable
vertical shear may support transient strong cells capable of
marginally severe hail through around 16z. A severe thunderstorm
watch is not expected at this time, as initial convection is
expected to only slowly increase in intensity the next few hours,
but trends will be monitored closely.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 11/20/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179250 33729279 32029513 31449665 31579733 31939779
            32289768 34649587 35089512 35169438 34989351 34409263
            34179250 

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