SPC MD 2274

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2274 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 711... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...MUCH OF LA

Mesoscale Discussion 2274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Much of LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 711...

Valid 202035Z - 202200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including strong tornadoes, continues. Greatest near-term tornado
threat exists from far southeast Texas through west-central and
central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a complex pattern with
several different boundaries in place across far southeast TX and LA
this afternoon. Thunderstorms have been increasing along an axis of
pre-frontal convergence that exists just of ahead of the
eastward-progressing cold front. This pre-frontal trough exists
roughly from the central LA/TX border (about 40 miles southwest of
SHV) south-southwestward through Liberty County TX. Environment
ahead of this trough continues to destabilize amid low-level
moisture advection, with 70 deg F dewpoints in place ahead of this
axis across southeast TX and southwest LA. 

This area of greater low-level moisture is advecting northward,
coincident with strengthening low-level flow. This strengthening
low-level flow is contributing to longer low-level hodographs and
greater storm-relative helicity. As such, an increase in tornadic
supercells appears possible over the next hour or two, particularly
from Jasper County TX northeastward into west-central/central LA.

..Mosier.. 11/20/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30059255 29829313 29789387 30049456 30529464 31499420
            32119397 32519324 32469247 32279218 31889206 31399201
            30509230 30059255 

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