Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 20, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 20, 2023 MD 2276 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MS...SOUTHEAST LA Mesoscale Discussion 2276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Areas affected...Central/Southwest MS...Southeast LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202114Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, will continue eastward into central and southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana later this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including several supercells, continue to evolve eastward over southeast TX and LA, ahead of an approaching upper-level trough and associated cold front. Modest destabilization has occurred within the downstream air mass from west-central MS into southeast LA. This region is displaced north and east of the better low-level moisture over southwest LA, but a large area of mid to upper 60s dewpoints exists across south-central and southeast LA. This should continue to advect northeastward ahead of the approaching upper trough, contributing to further destabilization over the next few hours. Low-level flow is also expected to increase ahead of this upper trough, with the resulting combination of buoyancy and shear contributing to a continued threat for severe thunderstorms this evening. Given the strong shear, primary severe risk is tornadoes, a few of which could be strong, with some threat for damaging gusts and/or isolated hail as well. A watch will likely be needed within the next hour or two to address this severe potential. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31989122 32789080 32969009 32868950 32648917 32308896 32018889 31728901 31068930 30578977 30379056 30429140 30809168 31989122 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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