Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 21, 2023 MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 2281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211636Z - 211730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two may accompany low-topped supercells as they approach the FL Panhandle shoreline. The severe threat should stay isolated over the next couple of hours, so a WW issuance is not expected in the near-term. DISCUSSION...Low-topped supercells have developed within the low-level warm-air-advection axis and are approaching the western FL Panhandle. Along the coast, strong veering and strengthening of the low-level wind profile supports enlarged hodographs. While dewpoints are reaching 70 F along the coast, weak diurnal heating beneath poor tropospheric lapse rates are resulting in thin CAPE profiles (with SBCAPE struggling to exceed 500 J/kg). As such, the strong low-level shear may support a brief tornado across the western FL Panhandle, but the severe threat should remain sparse at best over the next couple of hours, and a WW issuance not anticipated. Should more appreciable surface heating occur through the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, a relatively more robust severe threat could materialize. The region will be monitored more carefully for such a scenario and the need for a WW issuance later today. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30188678 30668638 30938595 30888533 30428470 29988485 29848538 29908620 30188678 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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