Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 21, 2023 MD 2282 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 2282 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into western Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 211952Z - 212215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out with any of the stronger storms that can materialize this afternoon into early evening. The severe threat will likely be isolated. DISCUSSION...Convection is slowly deepening along a line immediately ahead of a surface cold front that progressing eastward across central AL. Limited diurnal heating amid low-level warm-air advection has allowed for scant buoyancy to develop ahead of the aforementioned convective line. Surface temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s F amid mid 60s F dewpoints beneath poor tropospheric lapse rates supports narrow SBCAPE profiles (mainly below 500 J/kg), with evidence of embedded thin inversion layers (per latest RAP forecast soundings). While a strong low-level jet is in place (contributing to enlarged, curved hodographs), the surface low over the OH Valley should continue to drift northeastward with time, supporting an eastward shift of the low-level jet and resultant veering of flow in the surface-850 mb layer. When also considering the scant buoyancy, the severe threat appears limited. Nonetheless, there may be a window of opportunity for some of the stronger convective cells embedded in the line to overlap with locally higher CAPE before low-level flow veers and hodographs lose their curvature. For a few hours during the afternoon, some of these storms may acquire brief/transient low-level rotation. As such, a couple of damaging gusts or brief tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out. Nonetheless, the anticipated isolated nature of the severe threat suggests that a WW issuance will probably not be needed later today. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30348686 32228565 33688445 33938428 34228372 34168303 34018266 33358246 32798247 32388265 31848308 30738362 30158390 29758442 29598498 29678548 30038594 30108602 30348686 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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