Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 21, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 21, 2023 MD 2283 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE Mesoscale Discussion 2283 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2023 Areas affected...far southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212326Z - 220200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for an isolated, brief tornado may persist for another 2 hours or so, from parts of southeast Alabama into southwest Georgia. Given the short time frame and areal extent of the threat, a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell is currently ongoing over far southeast AL, just ahead of a line of storms along a cold front. The air mass ahead of the front is reasonably unstable to support severe storms given the shear, but overall large-scale support is dwindling as the low-level jet shifts northeastward. In the short term, sufficient instability of 500-1000 J/kg and 0-1 SRH of 150-180 m2/s2 may sustain a localized supercell/tornado risk, with ongoing activity, with a relatively limited threat corridor along and east of the cold front. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 11/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30998608 31468575 32018514 32438451 32548387 32298346 31828348 31098405 30758473 30668533 30798587 30788604 30998608 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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