Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted November 22, 2023 Administrators Share Posted November 22, 2023 MD 2285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0607 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221207Z - 221430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat is expected to develop across parts of eastern North Carolina this morning. The severe threat should remain marginal, and weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...At mid-levels, a trough and an associated speed max, are located over the central Gulf Coast states. The 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet will continue to approach the Carolinas over the next few hours. As a result, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will gradually strengthen over the Carolinas this morning. At the surface, a mesoscale low is analyzed over northeastern South Carolina, with another in northeastern North Carolina. A weakly unstable airmass is present to the east of this surface trough. This airmass will slowly destabilize this morning, which will make conditions more favorable for rotating storms. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Wilmington, North Carolina currently has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 230 m2/s2. As the low-level shear strengthens ahead of the system, a marginal tornado threat is expected to develop. This threat should persist throughout the morning from near the coast of North Carolina inland about 50 statute miles. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 11/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34957572 34107744 33967803 34057837 34317849 34677823 35747652 36047591 35927550 35447533 34957572 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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